February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Nito! You said spring was coming. Explain!


2035616067_index(20).thumb.png.df965fbcaaea0e750ab4c85238d38585.png

If this verifies than its a big fail for the EPS this time. Usually its solution wins but it's now taken a big step towards what the GFS and CMC ensembles have been showing for at least a week. While the Euro is regarded as the most reliable model, it's not perfect as no model is, and therefore it does sometimes get the pattern wrong. Hopefully the colder trend continues. Let's go for one more round of winter.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (6).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (7).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (8).png

[Typeing3]

20230209204416-a0e530b858b46b1f58cdf03a04bf319ef64f8b52.png

[Typeing3]

Current snowpack:

screen_shot_2023-02-08_at_2.34.24_pm_p3658286.jpg

[PortKells]

If this verifies than its a big fail for the EPS this time. Usually its solution wins but it's now taken a big step towards what the GFS and CMC ensembles have been showing for at least a week. While the Euro is regarded as the most reliable model, it's not perfect as no model is, and therefore it does sometimes get the pattern wrong. Hopefully the colder trend continues. Let's go for one more round of winter.

I would sort of disagree in that any model that catches a pattern more than 300 hours out has done its job. The GEFS and GEPS certainly caught it first (if true). The GFS and it's ensemble catches patterns decently well but often are too quick while the EPS only catches it when it comes into view.

[PortKells]

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (6).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (7).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (8).png

Here's PG

ens_image (1).png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

If this verifies than its a big fail for the EPS this time. Usually its solution wins but it's now taken a big step towards what the GFS and CMC ensembles have been showing for at least a week. While the Euro is regarded as the most reliable model, it's not perfect as no model is, and therefore it does sometimes get the pattern wrong. Hopefully the colder trend continues. Let's go for one more round of winter.

Particularly for cold outflow, I have seen the GFS be the first model to pick up on it more than once. It typically way overdoes how cold it’s going to get, however. You can safely add about 6°C to the modelled surface temperatures from the GFS in such situations.

[Typeing3]

Here's PG

ens_image (1).png

Kamloops


12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (69).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (70).png

12z GEM ensemble:

ens_image (71).png

[PortKells]

What a great 500 mb pattern. If it were to look like this I'm thinking my 100 cm winter goal might not be out of reach. Then again...sun angles.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_52.png

[AbbyJr]

What a great 500 mb pattern. If it were to look like this I'm thinking my 100 cm winter goal might not be out of reach. Then again...sun angles.


gfs-ens_z500a_namer_52.png

Agreed.

Sun angles aren’t a factor if the snow falls during the evening and overnight hours. Even at that, if the airmass is cold enough you can still get significant accumulations during the day despite less than ideal sun angles. Still remains to be seen how much cold will make it into our region. Let’s keep the cold trends going.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

They've lost it on the AF
March 1951 C'MON Feb 2019 redux it's insane down there.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I'm not sure. It looks normal for me

This is what l'm seeing.

Screenshot_20230209_174759_Chrome.jpg

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Pretty snow maps anyone.

[Typeing3]

This is what l'm seeing. Screenshot_20230209_174759_Chrome.jpg

That looks normal to me.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

That looks normal to me.

O.k. thanks Tstillwinter thought the background color was powder blue?