February 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

When all is said and done this will be a low key classic winter IMO. Kind of like 2016/2017 with different details. Hopefully the spring and summer that follows is slightly less miserable.

If the Saturday night snowfall delivers 30+ cm to many areas, this will be the second time this has happened this season.

How many of our winters have two or more snowfalls of such magnitude?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Just looked at the thermometer and the temperature took a tumble in the last hour. Now down to -6.9ËšC.

[East Chilliwack]

Wow! -11 this morning!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Just touched -7.0ËšC. Impressively cold for so late in the season.

[PortKells]

If the Saturday night snowfall delivers 30+ cm to many areas, this will be the second time this has happened this season.

How many of our winters have two or more snowfalls of such magnitude?

It's definitely a great way to send us off into the uncertainty of a pending el nino. In fact the 21/22 - 22/23 winter combo is easily one of if not the best set of back to back winters since I'm going to say 89/90.

Of course this is all pending on things verifying but let's be real - at this point it's happening. The models have literally been steady for 8 or 9 days now. I'm not sure I've seen that before.

[PortKells]

I guess nobody got snow on Halloween eh? That would've been absolutely ridiculous - 6 straight months of snow. (Granted Jan was still a joke but can't win em all)

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Of course this is all pending on things verifying but let's be real - at this point it's happening. The models have literally been steady for 8 or 9 days now. I'm not sure I've seen that before.

Yes, the model signal is very strong that we are about to receive a heavy fall of snow.

One worrying thing is that both EC and the local media are hyping the heck out of this possibility. Has the jinx been engaged? Time will soon tell.

[PortKells]

Yes, the model signal is very strong that we are about to receive a heavy fall of snow.

One worrying thing is that both EC and the local media are hyping the heck out of this possibility. Has the jinx been engaged? Time will soon tell.

I can't find any model support for a disappointment other than maybe the NBM. I'm not sure which models it's blending to be honest...even the icon is on board.

[wetcoast91]

I can't find any model support for a disappointment other than maybe the NBM. I'm not sure which models it's blending to be honest...even the icon is on board.

Sadly you're right. Even the PFS (Pineapple Forecast System) model is calling for 10cm of snow.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I can't find any model support for a disappointment other than maybe the NBM. I'm not sure which models it's blending to be honest...even the icon is on board.

The NBM is the one that the Portland forecast office just followed religiously in their recent failure to issue any sort of warning until it was too late. My theory is that it fails to weight the models properly, giving obscure low-accuracy ones too much of a vote and not giving enough of one to high-accuracy ones like the Euro (and even the GFS, despite how much fun we make of it, does better than most models, even though it doesn’t do as well as the Euro).

In the lead-in to the Portland snowstorm, all three of (ECMWF, GFS, GEM) were calling for a big snowstorm. The models were literally screaming what was going to happen.

[PortKells]

Sadly you're right. Even the PFS (Pineapple Forecast System) model is calling for 10cm of snow.

That's ok. By Mondays commute you'll have forgotten all about it..

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[wetcoast91]

That's ok. By Mondays commute you'll have forgotten all about it..

nam-218-all-vancouverski-instant_ptype_6hr_mm-1677240000-1677499200-1677542400-20.gif

Cruel.

[Cloverdale]

Cruel.

Better get out there today and start shattering, I mean mowing that grass in the that -5 sunshine.

[stuffradio]

I guess nobody got snow on Halloween eh? That would've been absolutely ridiculous - 6 straight months of snow. (Granted Jan was still a joke but can't win em all)

I got heavy snow on the night of Jan 31. It was heavy enough to cover the road and make driving slightly interesting, but it didn't really accumulate too much.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

12Z GFS is out. Still snowy.

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