March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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PortKells
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Nordelian wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:26 am Looks mostly normal actually. The ensemble mean indicates very slightly below normal which is likely due to Pacific being colder than normal - models tend to overestimate the influence of snow pack and sea surface temperatures in the spring in the longest range.

The pattern at the surface will likely translate to normal.
I hope you’re right. I like warmth in the early spring and then chilly to normal in the hottest months to avoid another hell on earth. But honestly just average the entire way through would be fantastic.
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

PortKells wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 2:19 pm I hope you’re right. I like warmth in the early spring and then chilly to normal in the hottest months to avoid another hell on earth. But honestly just average the entire way through would be fantastic.
It would be fantastic if we can avoid having a smokefest this year.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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PortKells
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 2:46 pm It would be fantastic if we can avoid having a smokefest this year.
IMO the only factor is summer weather. Getting a wet spring helps but those gains are wiped out in one hot week like we’ve seen time and time again. 2018 for example was a crazy wet spring with record snowpack, and a coolish start to summer. Then we had a hot stretch and boom, worst fire season on record.
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

:alert:
EC is going for back to back days and 15c Sunny for Abby Friday and Saturday. It's going to be so nice. Will feel like summer :shock:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

20230316021719-d41d26c11155aee5f27427a164ff502135ee4ced.png
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Hawk wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 6:26 pm :alert:
EC is going for back to back days and 15c Sunny for Abby Friday and Saturday. It's going to be so nice. Will feel like summer :shock:
Dang. Only 10C out here on the Sunshine Coast (time to reconsider the name)
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 7:18 pm 12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png
Pretty dry with lots of variability between sun and overcast I’m guessing. I’ll take it.
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:51 pm Thanks man. It’s torture but I’ve said it time and again, I’ll do whatever it takes to feel like myself again.

Also I’m feeling strangely optimistic this summer won’t be as torturous as the last two. Not sure why, other than the fact the atmosphere has had a major shakeup with the ssw and the shifting enso state.
I'm sorry to hear you haven't been been feeling yourself lately. :thumbdown: I hope you feel better soon. :thumbup:
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Nordelian wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:27 am From December to April the EC app defaults to the snow setting for radar for the entire country. On the website you can change between the two settings -so that was likely not nearly as heavy as that appears.
Thanks for the explanation Nords, yeah that was the WeatherCAN app radar you can't change the radar settings.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

PortKells wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:19 pm Dang. Only 10C out here on the Sunshine Coast (time to reconsider the name)
Sometimes it's cold sunshine and other times it's liquid sunshine but it's always sunshine :lol: :lol:
:team: :flakey: :flakey:

Snow total: 1cm Dec 24, 1cm Feb 19
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Sorry for the late posting could be a good night to catch the Aurora's with mostly clear skies in the central valley starts after 11:00p.m. actually the article l read said they could be visible for the next few nights as well. Perfect weather for it is forecasted Kells could be in a prime spot since he's away from light sources over there.
tonights_static_viewline_forecast.jpg
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Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Wonder where our buddy Glace is? :shifty: hoping the A.I. didn't take over his life the results could be mind blowing. :D :wtf: :lol: :w101:
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

:alert:
EC peaks out Abby at 16c Saturday under sunny skies and 3 days running at 15c or above :hearteyes:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: March 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:31 pm I'm sorry to hear you haven't been been feeling yourself lately. :thumbdown: I hope you feel better soon. :thumbup:
Thanks man. Covid messed me up good but I think even prior to that I had some gut issues so time for a good old fashioned reset. Hopefully with that vax reaction stuff you can get back to yourself soon too…I’ve heard it’s a similar experience and I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.
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