April 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The Jinx is real. Exhibit A: Models are already starting to show cold troughing for the weekend of the 15th and 16th.

Andrew on the AF found the following map when, prompted by my Jinx-based forecast for that weekend there, decided to check WeatherBell. It will of course trend north a bit and deliver snow for this area. (Because I will be in PDX then.)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_52.png

[Catnip]

Neetz... what gives?????

ens_image.png

[VanCitySouth]

The Jinx is real. Exhibit A: Models are already starting to show cold troughing for the weekend of the 15th and 16th.

Andrew on the AF found the following map when, prompted by my Jinx-based forecast for that weekend there, decided to check WeatherBell. It will of course trend north a bit and deliver snow for this area. (Because I will be in PDX then.)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_52.png

This is getting a bit silly. Also, officially April has had more measurable snow than March?? 0.4 cm on Sunday morning seems HIGHLY questionable.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

This is getting a bit silly. Also, officially April has had more measurable snow than March?? 0.4 cm on Sunday morning seems HIGHLY questionable.

Graupel shower, perhaps? Graupel = snow pellets, counts as snow. May have happened overnight while I slept, who knows.

Regardless, did not persist on the ground, does not count as sticking snow.

[wetcoast91]

Neetz... what gives?????



ens_image.png

April is the new January.
#EarlyApril

[Roberts Creeker]

The Jinx is real. Exhibit A: Models are already starting to show cold troughing for the weekend of the 15th and 16th.

Andrew on the AF found the following map when, prompted by my Jinx-based forecast for that weekend there, decided to check WeatherBell. It will of course trend north a bit and deliver snow for this area. (Because I will be in PDX then.)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_52.png

Thank you for your sacrifice! I will take snow even in mid April. Enjoy Portland.

[Hawk]

Snow Grains
7°C

Observed at:
Princeton Airport
Date:
4:04 PM PDT Tuesday 4 April 2023
Condition:
Snow Grains
Pressure:
101.9 kPa
Tendency:
Falling

Temperature:
7.0°C
Dew point:
-8.8°C
Humidity:
31%

Very common as noted earlier

[VanCitySouth]

Graupel shower, perhaps? Graupel = snow pellets, counts as snow. May have happened overnight while I slept, who knows.

Regardless, did not persist on the ground, does not count as sticking snow.

I think they "recorded" it during an ice pellet shower between 10 and 11 AM. I noticed they were reporting that at about 10:30 on Sunday morning.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Snow Grains
7°C

Observed at:
Princeton Airport
Date:
4:04 PM PDT Tuesday 4 April 2023
Condition:
Snow Grains
Pressure:
101.9 kPa
Tendency:
Falling

Temperature:
7.0°C
Dew point:
-8.8°C
Humidity:
31%

Very common as noted earlier

I had a weather station as a teen in the mountains of New Mexico and more than once I observed snow grains (i.e. graupel) showers initiate at temperatures of 10°C in the spring months. Often accompanied by plummeting temperatures and a transition to snowflakes. Always impressed me how easy it was to get snow despite relatively warm surface temperatures during the spring.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I think they "recorded" it during an ice pellet shower between 10 and 11 AM. I noticed they were reporting that at about 10:30 on Sunday morning.

Sounds like BS to me, then. I was awake and would not count a few hail showers as 0.4 cm of snow.

[VanCitySouth]

Sounds like BS to me, then. I was awake and would not count a few hail showers as 0.4 cm of snow.

Like I said, highly questionable. Trace is justifiable. Measurable, nooo way.

[Typeing3]

Dusting of snow here this morning. Had accumulating hail 2 afternoons in a row here.


Sundays hail accumulation. Yesterday was about the same amount but the hail was larger in size.
70217468612__679ED91E-B2CC-48D7-A497-7446C42D8BF0.jpeg

Had a dusting of snow/hail/ice pellets on the lawn early this morning too.

[wetcoast91]

Barely any sunshine the next 7-10 days.

Tons of chilly rain mixed with +10C rain.

[Hawk]

Barely any sunshine the next 7-10 days.

Tons of chilly rain mixed with +10C rain.

Enjoy. Nito's fave type of weather in January

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (70).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (71).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (72).png