July 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Winnipeg!

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00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png

I'm getting the vibes of a last minute jump in modelled temperatures with those ensembles in the second week leading to a decent heat wave, but I hope to be wrong. I'm ready to cruise through a few weeks with 25C highs and a few clouds here and there.

[Bonovox]

uhhhh no. You get to enjoy that from Oct to April

Soon you'll get to enjoy dry and hot for 6 months of the year....

[stuffradio]

CommodityWx on Twitter shared an image and said they see models starting to shift towards the idea of a trough ridge trough pattern like what happened in June for August. The image showed a cooler west coast, hotter in the central CONUS and cool on the east again. They also mentioned 2009 as an analog for the winter.

It's kind of like this idea here

ecmwf_z500a_namer_49.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Another 6 months of daily 5-10mm rain would be better.

https://www.mikemorse.ca/buyers/relocation/

[PortKells]

CommodityWx on Twitter shared an image and said they see models starting to shift towards the idea of a trough ridge trough pattern like what happened in June for August. The image showed a cooler west coast, hotter in the central CONUS and cool on the east again. They also mentioned 2009 as an analog for the winter.

It's kind of like this idea here
ecmwf_z500a_namer_49.png

2008/2009 would be alright. 2009/2010 maybe not.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

CommodityWx on Twitter shared an image and said they see models starting to shift towards the idea of a trough ridge trough pattern like what happened in June for August. The image showed a cooler west coast, hotter in the central CONUS and cool on the east again. They also mentioned 2009 as an analog for the winter.

It's kind of like this idea here
ecmwf_z500a_namer_49.png

2009 had an dry arctic blast in December. And a surprise snowfall later that month when an entrenched inversion did not scour out in response to an incoming system as it was forecast to. Else it was the standard El Niño turd burger. At least that was the story in Portland. Was it any different up this way?

[VanCitySouth]

2009 had an dry arctic blast in December. And a surprise snowfall later that month when an entrenched inversion did not scour out in response to an incoming system as it was forecast to. Else it was the standard El Niño turd burger. At least that was the story in Portland. Was it any different up this way?

I believe December 2009 featured the mother of all busts here, when a Winter Storm Warning for something like 20-40 cm of snow turned into 2 hours of snow at the airport then rain all night.

That winter is responsible for this forum's paranoia about busts, and is not fondly remembered.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I believe December 2009 featured the mother of all busts here, when a Winter Storm Warning for something like 20-40 cm of snow turned into 2 hours of snow at the airport then rain all night.

That winter is responsible for this forum's paranoia about busts, and is not fondly remembered.

It's the Jan 8th 2011 bust that will live on in infamy Van man the models had shown snow and cold headed our way and as the Red Wings scored the OT winner over the Canucks the models that night totally collapsed it still haunts many of us.

[VanCitySouth]

It's the Jan 8th 2011 bust that will live on in infamy Van man the models had shown snow and cold headed our way and as the Red Wings scored the OT winner over the Canucks the models that night totally collapsed it still haunts many of us.

Oh was it that? I stand corrected. I always thought it was right after the epic winter.

[Typeing3]

I believe December 2009 featured the mother of all busts here, when a Winter Storm Warning for something like 20-40 cm of snow turned into 2 hours of snow at the airport then rain all night.

That winter is responsible for this forum's paranoia about busts, and is not fondly remembered.

I remember that epic failure fondly. One of the all time greats for sure.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

CommodityWx on Twitter shared an image and said they see models starting to shift towards the idea of a trough ridge trough pattern like what happened in June for August. The image showed a cooler west coast, hotter in the central CONUS and cool on the east again. They also mentioned 2009 as an analog for the winter.

It's kind of like this idea here
ecmwf_z500a_namer_49.png

Looks more like a El Neetz pattern we reached a high of 25c today in the central valley.

[VanCitySouth]

I remember that epic failure fondly. One of the all time greats for sure.

Wait now I'm confused. Sardine says it was January 2011. I always remembered it as the one right after 08/09 because I remember thinking to myself "wow I can't believe we're lucky enough for two epic Decembers in a row" before it all collapsed spectacularly.

[Typeing3]

Sunny with gusty winds all across the southern prairies (Medicine Hat to Regina) today with high temps hovering between 29c and 32c. With the exception of the Cypress Hills, the Lethbridge to Moose Jaw corridor -- SE Alberta and SW Saskatchewan -- is just about as dry as the valleys of the Thompson-Okanagan.

First pic is from east of Swift Current, second is from Regina.

Screenshot_2023-07-26-20-33-58.png

Screenshot_2023-07-26-20-28-03.png

[Typeing3]

Wait now I'm confused. Sardine says it was January 2011. I always remembered it as the one right after 08/09 because I remember thinking to myself "wow I can't believe we're lucky enough for two epic Decembers in a row" before it all collapsed spectacularly.

Both December 2009 and January 2011 had separate massive snowstorm forecasts which turned out to be epic failures at the last minute.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Wait now I'm confused. Sardine says it was January 2011. I always remembered it as the one right after 08/09 because I remember thinking to myself "wow I can't believe we're lucky enough for two epic Decembers in a row" before it all collapsed spectacularly.

That's perhaps due to it did snow at least were we coming out of an Arctic blast perhaps? unlike Jan 2011 where we were supposed to go into an event.
We've had several snow busts over the years after an Arctic blast
I guess l categorize them separately.