We're 4 months away from Winter. Last year Bonovox created a thread topic for this in August, so I thought I would create one in August as well
I'm not really expecting much in terms of snow this year but the El Nito is currently only forecast to reach the Strong category instead of super El Nito the media was hyping earlier this year. It's appearing like the El Nito will start to weaken during Q1 2024 in the Winter months. Maybe it will drop to Neutral or weak Nino by Spring 2024. The Mean forecast for the Nino is below
nino34Sea.png
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stuffradio wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 12:03 pm
We're 4 months away from Winter. Last year Bonovox created a thread topic for this in August, so I thought I would create one in August as well
I'm not really expecting much in terms of snow this year but the El Nito is currently only forecast to reach the Strong category instead of super El Nito the media was hyping earlier this year. It's appearing like the El Nito will start to weaken during Q1 2024 in the Winter months. Maybe it will drop to Neutral or weak Nino by Spring 2024. The Mean forecast for the Nino is below
nino34Sea.png
The over under is on 15 cm at yvr this year imo. I’d take the under. The last El Niño in 2018/2019 sucked crap until February but that was a strong SSW, can’t depend on that happening again.
I have seen tweets saying this will be like 2009-10 and 18-19. Apparently the current pattern is behaving like an extremely east based El Nino and the areas of warming in the ENSO 1, 2 region are second to 97-98 but it's not going to be like 97-98 apparently. I'm not sure what some are thinking the pattern will be like so I guess buckle up and we'll see. Maybe this will be an El Nino where we will get very active on the west?
stuffradio wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 12:43 pm
I have seen tweets saying this will be like 2009-10 and 18-19. Apparently the current pattern is behaving like an extremely east based El Nino and the areas of warming in the ENSO 1, 2 region are second to 97-98 but it's not going to be like 97-98 apparently. I'm not sure what some are thinking the pattern will be like so I guess buckle up and we'll see. Maybe this will be an El Nino where we will get very active on the west?
Let's get real for a second. I don't think anyone can predict how a whole season will go. For example I don't think anyone predicted last winter's 100+ cm of snow on the west coast. However we've seen that El Ninos aren't all bad here so its not a complete write off. The odds are always against us no matter what the conditions are.
PortKells wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:33 am
Let's get real for a second. I don't think anyone can predict how a whole season will go. For example I don't think anyone predicted last winter's 100+ cm of snow on the west coast. However we've seen that El Ninos aren't all bad here so its not a complete write off. The odds are always against us no matter what the conditions are.
l agree wasn't 68/69 an El Nino year and YVR recorded -18 at the end of Dec/68 and again in later Jan/69. l thought it was quite snowy that winter as well.
Last edited by HarrisonSasquatchWx on Sun Aug 13, 2023 12:32 am, edited 4 times in total.
stuffradio wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 12:43 pm
I have seen tweets saying this will be like 2009-10 and 18-19. Apparently the current pattern is behaving like an extremely east based El Nino and the areas of warming in the ENSO 1, 2 region are second to 97-98 but it's not going to be like 97-98 apparently. I'm not sure what some are thinking the pattern will be like so I guess buckle up and we'll see. Maybe this will be an El Nino where we will get very active on the west?
2009-10 was absolutely horrific. Extreme warmth in January and February.
SouthSardiswx wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 12:05 pm
l agree wasn't 68/69 an El Nino year and YVR recorded -18 at the end of Dec/68 and again in later Jan/69. l thought it was quite snowy that winter as well.
Yes. 1968/69 was a moderate El Niño. The 1965/66 winter was a strong El Niño and it was cold and snowy too. We also have 2006/07, which was active, cold, and snowy. Contrary to what some may think, El Niño does not mean winter cancel around here. Sure, there have been many bad winters under El Niño conditions but there have also been bad winters under La Niña conditions. ENSO state does often have an impact but its not the only driver of our weather and therefore, we can't just assume every La Niña will be cold and snowy and every El Niño will be dry and mild. Time will tell but I'm not writing off this winter yet solely on the basis that it's likely going to be an El Niño.
I am moving to Mission this fall. I will be a significantly higher elevation compared to where I am currently. Too bad this winter is looking like a disappointment. But I guess it's too much to ask for my first winter in my new location to be amazing.
A few years ago, Cliff Mass had an excellent blog post about how El ninos affect PacNw winters and the strongest El Nino's are actually very active and stormy around here. At this point a worst case scenario would just to be a moderate El Nino of split flow and ridging. That is the last thing this province needs. We need an active and stormy pattern to take hold much like the El Nino's of 97/98, 09/10 and 15/16.
Hound wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 12:21 pm
Well Abby, according to the Vancouver Enquirer, aka Daily Hive, "Southern BC could be in for "bone-chilling" cold this winter."
Abby_wx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 2:28 pm
I am moving to Mission this fall. I will be a significantly higher elevation compared to where I am currently. Too bad this winter is looking like a disappointment. But I guess it's too much to ask for my first winter in my new location to be amazing.
l missed this l’m happy to hear you’ll be in a better spot weather wise Abby Sr. after 5 years in Chilliwack l still miss Mission if not for the higher elevation and better chances of snow and just over all more precipitation. I enjoyed the smaller town feel as well. It seems your mood was hindered by your location l noticed the last several years. Looking forward to your weather readings from your new location.
Last edited by Slimshadyinsardis on Wed Sep 06, 2023 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Hound wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 12:21 pm
Well Abby, according to the Vancouver Enquirer, aka Daily Hive, "Southern BC could be in for "bone-chilling" cold this winter."
I can't believe that the media still publishes the "The Farmers’ Almanac" forecasts. It goes to show you that they don't care about misinformation and science at all. Clicks are way more important.
the good old hive. 
∞ to 0.5 
GFS
