September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Yup, 2 hours of 41 (3 and 4pm) and 2 hours of 40 (2 and 5). Also 1 hour of 41 at Moosonee. So 41 in the south in Windsor and 41 in the far north. 42 in places like Ottawa and Montreal though.

43 in Vineland, Saint-Anicet and Gatineau.


Humidex is garbage though. It exaggerates how hot it feels by quite a lot compared to the American heat index. Though, I do agree, how hot you feel because of humidity is more important than actual.

One of the big problems with the humidex is that it speaks in terms of "feels like" which is highly subjective. For example, the claim is that if the humidex is 40, then it feels as if it were 40C dry heat even though the actual temperature may only be 33C.

But this is ridiculous. It's highly unlikely most people would say 33C humid heat feels like 40C dry heat. The reason being is that they are different. In fact, many would say 33C humid heat is worse than 40C dry heat. But some may beg to differ.

Ultimately, there is no scientific formula to calculate an exact temperature that it feels like with any given humidity level. Therefore, rather than trying to say it feels like 40C, I would suggest adopting a humidity level index similar to the air quality index. That way it could still be emphasized that the humidity levels may make the heat feel worse but at the same time it wouldn't be trying to put some random temperature to it that it supposedly feels like with the humidity.

I'm not sure the American heat index works, but I've heard it's much more accurate than the Canadian humidex.

[Nordelian]

This actually is a bit of a misconception.

Normal high is 23c. EC has also said it's not normal.

I lived in Toronto for 15 years. "Normal" is a misconception in a humid continental climate. +-/ 10 degrees from "normal" is not abnormal in spring and autumn.

Like the post earlier, 40 humidex in September is not exceptional

[Weather101]

I lived in Toronto for 15 years. "Normal" is a misconception in a humid continental climate. +-/ 10 degrees from "normal" is not abnormal in spring and autumn.

Like the post earlier, 40 humidex in September is not exceptional

As EC and the weather network quoted

" It's VERY atypical." Not my words. Just from the 2 biggest weather agencies in Canada.

This isn't a normal pattern in early September.

[Weather101]

One of the big problems with the humidex is that it speaks in terms of "feels like" which is highly subjective. For example, the claim is that if the humidex is 40, then it feels as if it were 40C dry heat even though the actual temperature may only be 33C.

But this is ridiculous. It's highly unlikely most people would say 33C humid heat feels like 40C dry heat. The reason being is that they are different. In fact, many would say 33C humid heat is worse than 40C dry heat. But some may beg to differ.

Ultimately, there is no scientific formula to calculate an exact temperature that it feels like with any given humidity level. Therefore, rather than trying to say it feels like 40C, I would suggest adopting a humidity level index similar to the air quality index. That way it could still be emphasized that the humidity levels may make the heat feel worse but at the same time it wouldn't be trying to put some random temperature to it that it supposedly feels like with the humidity.

I'm not sure the American heat index works, but I've heard it's much more accurate than the Canadian humidex.

For the most part, at least for me, I can tell if the humidity outside is real or not. If it is says 25c but the humidex is 32c, you can tell easily. The feel like temperature is all that I care about when planning my summer activities.

In toronto, you can definitely feel the gross humidity, which sucks.

Wind chill you can definitely feel. But that's a winter topic haha

[Weather101]

That is surprising, however there must've been some significant heat for those fires out east in early summer to have gotten so bad.

Really hot in June.

[AbbyJr]

For the most part, at least for me, I can tell if the humidity outside is real or not. If it is says 25c but the humidex is 32c, you can tell easily. The feel like temperature is all that I care about when planning my summer activities.

In toronto, you can definitely feel the gross humidity, which sucks.

Wind chill you can definitely feel. But that's a winter topic haha

No doubt one can tell the difference between humid heat and dry heat. I just disagree with stating that it feels like a certain temperature when in fact, what it feels like varies from person to person.

[Nordelian]

As EC and the weather network quoted

" It's VERY atypical." Not my words. Just from the 2 biggest weather agencies in Canada.

This isn't a normal pattern in early September.

The fact that Toronto has hit 40 humidex over 15 times in Septembers in the past decade doesn't feel that atypical. Basically every other year..

[Typeing3]

The fact that Toronto has hit 40 humidex over 15 times in Septembers in the past decade doesn't feel that atypical. Basically every other year..

Based on those stats, the wording by EC and TWN definitely seems to be on the hyperbolic/embellishing side of things.

[Abby_wx]

Humidex is garbage though. It exaggerates how hot it feels by quite a lot compared to the American heat index. Though, I do agree, how hot you feel because of humidity is more important than actual.

Both are flawed. The humidex exaggerates at lower temperatures, but the heat index is way too conservative at lower temperatures. For example, a temperature of 27C with 100% relative humidity results in a humidex of 42, but a heat index of just 31C.

Once you reach an actual temperature of 40C+, both indexes are actually pretty close to each other.

[Mattman]

Speaking of the feels, is it just me, or is it when it’s extreme hot or cold, what’s reported on the news first is “feels like” followed by the objective ambient temperature? I don’t remember that always been the case. If the powers that be inject “feels like” into objective data, we need a “feels like” speed index. Sorry officer, the speed index felt like 80 as it’s a divided, four-lane highway despite my speed of 110 in an 80 zone.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

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00z GEM ensembles:

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[Typeing3]

20230906133256-7a5d7626f98ffbc61bb5d80a45cc5df6dd5f9922.png

[Weather101]

Both are flawed. The humidex exaggerates at lower temperatures, but the heat index is way too conservative at lower temperatures. For example, a temperature of 27C with 100% relative humidity results in a humidex of 42, but a heat index of just 31C.

Once you reach an actual temperature of 40C+, both indexes are actually pretty close to each other.

Definitely agree

[stuffradio]

Some of the weather forecasts I have seen lately seem to be relatively "Goldilocks" like. Temperatures not too hot with some relatively cool temperatures sometimes.

[Catnip]

Latest weeklies are on the drier side.

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