September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Typically also leans warmer than average for much of the country including Toronto.

Cooler and wetter than average further east (Atlantic provinces) and to the south (New England, Mid-Atlantic and the SE US).

The one thing to consider is that this El Niño will likely be combined with a strongly negative PDO. I've been doing some research recently into how the PDO and ENSO interact, and there is a connection between the two.

From what I understand, when the PDO and ENSO are both in the same state, the effects of the ENSO can be enhanced. Therefore, a positive PDO combined with a positive ENSO can work to enhance El Niño's effects. However, when the PDO and ENSO are in opposite states, the effects of ENSO can be diminished. So a negative PDO combined with a positive ENSO can actually reduce the typical effects of El Niño.

If this theory is true, then this upcoming El Niño may not be as dry and mild as a typical El Niño. I looked back at some analogs and our colder and snowier El Niño's were for the most part during a negative PDO cycle.

Of course there are never any guarantees but I found the connection between the PDO and ENSO interesting. Just goes to show the complexity of seasonal forecasting. There is never just one factor. Its a combination and even at that its an educated guess at best.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

[Typeing3]

20230908133720-9459a5603cd022f340433fd95035a664c73bb23c.png

20230908133734-6a579815e2bc8c44f09a831293394bad8cea4065.png

[PortKells]

Of course climate change is real but to say droughts floods and fires didn’t happen in the past is just ludicrous in my opinion

Point me to where someone said that.

[Weather101]

Point me to where someone said that.

Yeah, I'm confused? Cause I never said that.

[Weather101]

Excellent analysis. I agree with you completely. Thanks for being the voice of reason in the midst of ridiculous climate fear.

I just hope if you do have kids in the future they will have a safe sustainable planet.

Highly unlikely but as you said it's just " ridiculous climate fear "

[Weather101]

Of course climate change is real but to say droughts floods and fires didn’t happen in the past is just ludicrous in my opinion

Where did I say that? Lol

[Weather101]

The problem is people who grew up in a different time always seems to think the world is (or should be) the same as it was back then. It's not. It never will be. We are in a different place now. The way to move forward is for the older generations to understand that instead of wanting a return back to the "good ol' days".

Well, that's the issue, The older generation looks back at there days growing up and they think" well I had it like this so that's how it should be " they don't adapt and are stuck in there ways. Then what happens is they push us back even more because they don't care for facts and science. Then they teach their kids that climate change is a joke, etc, and brainwash their kids, and then it becomes an endless cycle, almost like racism it's taught and brought down generations. Thankfully, most of my generation and the new generation aren't like that. They believe in science and data, and they don't care what the older generation says because they know the truth. Unfortunately the internet has allowed some people who don't know what there talking about to brain wash people with false facts but they present it in a way that allows people to believe " Well this is true climate change is fake" but they leave out so much information. Like my dad always says, " You can lie by omitting facts," and that's what's happening.

For every Abby Jr ( he has a right to believe what he wants and I respect his opinion as I know he isn't trolling) there's 1000 people who know climate change is real so thankfully that should help us in the future.

We all need to adapt, and I do worry about if I have kids in the future. Climate change affects food prices and sustainability jobs, but nobody even talks about that.

[Weather101]

I think the generations before mine let me down. That includes the government.
The fact that Exxon knew in the 70s what climate change was capable of and spent years denying it is remarkable (source: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... .%E2%80%9D)

The fact that conservative governments here and abroad are still spreading nonsense about climate change bothers me. My generation is paying for the greed of previous generations. Maybe not my kids, but my grandchildren will be coming in to a very unfortunate world and I'm afraid it's too late for people my age to help make the changes required, particularly because we have politicians all across the world too scared to implement actual real world change.

Completely agree with this. I myself find that it will be to late unfortunately and that scares me.. We won't be here to see how bad the world will be but we are already seeing it..

[Weather101]

I'm glad we were able to have a good conversation like this.
This is how it should be

[Weather101]

The one thing to consider is that this El Niño will likely be combined with a strongly negative PDO. I've been doing some research recently into how the PDO and ENSO interact, and there is a connection between the two.

From what I understand, when the PDO and ENSO are both in the same state, the effects of the ENSO can be enhanced. Therefore, a positive PDO combined with a positive ENSO can work to enhance El Niño's effects. However, when the PDO and ENSO are in opposite states, the effects of ENSO can be diminished. So a negative PDO combined with a positive ENSO can actually reduce the typical effects of El Niño.

If this theory is true, then this upcoming El Niño may not be as dry and mild as a typical El Niño. I looked back at some analogs and our colder and snowier El Niño's were for the most part during a negative PDO cycle.

Of course there are never any guarantees but I found the connection between the PDO and ENSO interesting. Just goes to show the complexity of seasonal forecasting. There is never just one factor. Its a combination and even at that its an educated guess at best.

This is actually very informative

Weather is so complicated which is why we all love it so much

[Weather101]

The eye of hurricane Lee

https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1700 ... QYzZA&s=19

[Bonovox]

I don’t mind this back and forth, but I will ask all to pause the discussion when we have active weather to discuss. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

[Weather101]

I don’t mind this back and forth, but I will ask all to pause the discussion when we have active weather to discuss. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

I agree! Nothing to speak yet about weather but that should change come October.

[PortKells]

500 mm of rain in 24 hr in Hong Kong.