September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[Weather101]

Please no 2015-16 winter even the Knuckles stunk out that winter.

Not as bad as that winter. Definitely won't be like last winter, tho.

[Hawk]

A toasty 28c this afternoon in Langley under sunny skies

Edit: Looks like vehicle temps were off a little. But was prolly 27c..quite warm indeed for mid Sept

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

About 10 mm in 10 days. Pretty dry. No early start to the rainy season for southern BC, sorry.

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-total_precip_mm-5556800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-total_precip_mm-5556800.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

About 10 mm in 10 days. Pretty dry. No early start to the rainy season for southern BC, sorry.

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-total_precip_mm-5556800.png
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-total_precip_mm-5556800.png

CC of last October perhaps Rubes l remember seeing a temperature read out in the central valley in mid October reading 27c l think l posted it back then and wearing shorts tiil almost Halloween @ my age 64 that's considered a feat.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Not as bad as that winter. Definitely won't be like last winter, tho.

Which one Weederman Knuckles or winter? they've been terrible how many winters now l lost track.

[Hawk]

Let's think model failure cuz it's at hour 240 and rain train dips south hundreds of miles

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Thank you to Ms. Roberts Creeky for the fall avatar. It's currently a pleasant 17c @ the pond in south Sardis.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Let's think model failure cuz it's at hour 240 and rain train dips south hundreds of miles

Easily possible.

[AbbyJr]

Not as bad as that winter. Definitely won't be like last winter, tho.

In my opinion, it's too soon to say this winter won't be like last winter. While it's less likely, there have been some very cold and snowy El Niño's in the past and most of them were during a -PDO cycle. Fact is that it's impossible to predict this far out whether or not we will see any significant cold and snow events come the winter months.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

In my opinion, it's too soon to say this winter won't be like last winter. While it's less likely, there have been some very cold and snowy El Niño's in the past and most of them were during a -PDO cycle. Fact is that it's impossible to predict this far out whether or not we will see any significant cold and snow events come the winter months.

Jr. Man l gave you your own thread for your monthly reports.

[AbbyJr]

Jr. Man l gave you your own thread for your monthly reports.

Thanks so much for the promotion.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

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20230915133332-b5438abfc09e7b995c762ff7c0e1a3e1c9670a93.png

20230915133316-94b4c3800fb1b674379756cb5980fd2bcda42aca.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

9.8ËšC. First time below 10 for the season IMBY.

[Hawk]

In my opinion, it's too soon to say this winter won't be like last winter. While it's less likely, there have been some very cold and snowy El Niño's in the past and most of them were during a -PDO cycle. Fact is that it's impossible to predict this far out whether or not we will see any significant cold and snow events come the winter months.

Exactly. Let's stay positive. We will only know how this winter is 100% around mid March.

[Hawk]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png



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20230915133332-b5438abfc09e7b995c762ff7c0e1a3e1c9670a93.png
20230915133316-94b4c3800fb1b674379756cb5980fd2bcda42aca.png

Thank you for continuously posting these graphs. The signs are there. Mid to long range looks like a shift towards a much wetter pattern