October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Catnip]

I'm acting like fishman today. Where is everyone?

Good Job Neetz!

taught you well!

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

With today's torrential monsoon this afternoon 18.2mm has fallen today @ the pond in south Sardis. and we reached a high of 16c as well.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Something tells me we will be saying this in January!

Or the death ridge may bring tons of fake cold! East winds! Cold pools!

Don't forget the world famous central valley warm annus downsloping winds El Nino man.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (3).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (4).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (5).png

------------------------------------------

20231017133005-c5ac26b092ea37eef5bfd7564c9b3ddd7649810a.png

20231017132947-b5999f505c13d0d08a0ffc9d713c2a83de112689.png

[Hawk]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (4).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (5).png



------------------------------------------
20231017133005-c5ac26b092ea37eef5bfd7564c9b3ddd7649810a.png
20231017132947-b5999f505c13d0d08a0ffc9d713c2a83de112689.png

Warning shot incoming. This should be the first snows of the Similkameens. A little late but better than November!!

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

A.I. Canada has some winter weather for both Calgary and Edmonton come Monday. And shorts day for the central valley on Thursday has gone from 21c to 16c and long pants l guess the 20's are done perhaps.

[wetcoast91]

AR taking aim at the South Coast.

[tyweather]

A look back at the October cold snap of 2020 on Mount Seymour. Could we see some late October mountain snow again?

[Hawk]

AR taking aim at the South Coast.

When??

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

AR taking aim at the South Coast.

If it’s anything like the other recent ones, it will detour to the south and leave BC with only some dregs of rain.

BC is not allowed to have heavy rain this autumn, sorry.

[AbbyJr]

Warning shot incoming. This should be the first snows of the Similkameens. A little late but better than November!!

Hopefully it's a warning shot of what's to come in December and January. Would love to see a 1968/69 repeat but I'd settle matters with a 1956/57 repeat. It would be nice to finally get another cold January and break the curse. It's long overdue so its bound to happen at some point.

January 1957 averaged 0.2C at YXX whereas January 1969 averaged -1.9C. Both had significant arctic blasts in both December and January and long duration snow cover.

In my opinion, 1956/57 was the appetizer and 1968/69 was the real deal.

Even January 1996 was good... lots of cold onshore flow with significant snow cover at YXX... max snow depth was 38cm on January 23rd.
Multiple snowfalls with around two weeks of cold. Sure, it wasn't historical cold but it was snowy, at least in the Fraser Valley.

That said, January 1954 is the best in my opinion. Direct discharge of arctic air from the north locked in for 10-12 days. During the event, moisture laden pacific storms slammed into the firmly entrenched arctic air and took the perfect track. The cold was not pushed out of the region. The arctic high remained strong while the moisture moved overtop of it. The result was nearly 7 days of snow with Abbotsford recording its highest daily total of 49.8cm on January 21st. Seven day snow totals were 118.7cm at YXX and 69.3cm at YVR.

I know I've mentioned January 1954 a lot here but from a snow lovers perspective, it was one the best analogs for the Fraser Valley.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Hopefully it's a warning shot of what's to come in December and January. Would love to see a 1968/69 repeat but I'd settle matters with a 1956/57 repeat. It would be nice to finally get another cold January and break the curse. It's long overdue so its bound to happen at some point.

January 1957 averaged 0.2C at YXX whereas January 1969 averaged -1.9C. Both had significant arctic blasts in both December and January and long duration snow cover.

In my opinion, 1956/57 was the appetizer and 1968/69 was the real deal.

Even January 1996 was good... lots of cold onshore flow with significant snow cover at YXX... max snow depth was 38cm on January 23rd.
Multiple snowfalls with around two weeks of cold. Sure, it wasn't historical cold but it was snowy, at least in the Fraser Valley.

That said, January 1954 is the best in my opinion. Direct discharge of arctic air from the north locked in for 10-12 days. During the event, moisture laden pacific storms slammed into the firmly entrenched arctic air and took the perfect track. The cold was not pushed out of the region. The arctic high remained strong while the moisture moved overtop of it. The result was nearly 7 days of snow with Abbotsford recording its highest daily total of 49.8cm on January 21st. Seven day snow totals were 118.7cm at YXX and 69.3cm at YVR.

I know I've mentioned January 1954 a lot here but from a snow lovers perspective, it was one the best analogs for the Fraser Valley.

Awesome read and research Jr. man, l remember the January 96 event we were living near Guilford mall we had the elevation and the outflow that follows highway 1 into Surrey. We had close to 30cm during that event and a reload around the 29th or 30th of January if l recall the initial onset around the 20th we had heavy snow as the arctic air and moisture decended upon the lower mainland.

[wetcoast91]

If it’s anything like the other recent ones, it will detour to the south and leave BC with only some dregs of rain.

BC is not allowed to have heavy rain this autumn, sorry.

It is pouring outside. +12C and very heavy rain.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

It is pouring outside. +12C and very heavy rain.

We need some pineapple music for those 12c and rainy day's,
perhaps Wayne Newton El Raino man.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

It is pouring outside. +12C and very heavy rain.

You need this then El Nino.

images.jpeg