November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[arbetrader]

Nice score!

Another band of lighter showers moved in recently. I'm now up to 52mm for today. Stopped raining again.

Interesting that YXX only recorded 42.7mm yesterday. It goes to show that the further east you are the more rain received (by what appears to be a substantial margin) - It felt like we were over 50mm too - although I didn't officially measure. YXX typically underperforms in rain events given the central location away from the mountains. Areas just 10kms away (and closer to the mountains) seem to typically get much more. Either way - It sure was a soaker though!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

20.3 mm between midnight and midnight yesterday, 22.9 mm storm total.

It indeed went mostly to my east.

[AbbyJr]

Interesting that YXX only recorded 42.7mm yesterday. It goes to show that the further east you are the more rain received (by what appears to be a substantial margin) - It felt like we were over 50mm too - although I didn't officially measure. YXX typically underperforms in rain events given the central location away from the mountains. Areas just 10kms away (and closer to the mountains) seem to typically get much more. Either way - It sure was a soaker though!

I'm just under 10 km north east of YXX so I think that is one of the factors. While not a substantial difference, I'm still somewhat closer to the mountains than the airport. I also tend to be much more sheltered from the wind than the airport so that is also a contributing factor as to why my location may be slightly less rain shadowed than YXX. That said, there have been times where YXX does record higher rain totals than my station. Further, yesterday's storm was very convective with localized bands of extremely heavy rain. Therefore, I'm not surprised to see significant differences in totals from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

[Hound]

Interesting:
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-new ... law-ticket

[VanCitySouth]

20.3 cm between midnight and midnight yesterday, 22.9 cm storm total.

It indeed went mostly to my east.

I wouldn't sniff at a 23 cm storm total
Rubes clearly already dreaming of white Christmas

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I wouldn't sniff at a 23 cm storm total
Rubes clearly already dreaming of white Christmas

Ha! Good catch!

Alas, I think it will be a few years before we see more 20+ cm storm total snowfalls.

[wetcoast91]

+14C

Heavy coming.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

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20231106143341-fc43efc37f01106e9d30170ec10fc5acb250cbaf.png

20231106143402-6fa898691b7bf682ff4a733a4bbd4e00427d0b88.png

[wetcoast91]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png




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20231106143341-fc43efc37f01106e9d30170ec10fc5acb250cbaf.png
20231106143402-6fa898691b7bf682ff4a733a4bbd4e00427d0b88.png

Pretty much 14 days of this.



Looks ugly for South America as well. Signs of persistent drought and heat over the next few weeks. This will likely make headlines this winter.

[Hawk]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png




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20231106143341-fc43efc37f01106e9d30170ec10fc5acb250cbaf.png
20231106143402-6fa898691b7bf682ff4a733a4bbd4e00427d0b88.png

hmmm looks at or below seasonal next 10-12 days
Where did the go Nito? Looks like someone blew them up

[Catnip]

Ha! Good catch!

Alas, I think it will be a few years before we see more 20+ cm storm total snowfalls.

[Catnip]

Pretty much 14 days of this.



Looks ugly for South America as well. Signs of persistent drought and heat over the next few weeks. This will likely make headlines this winter.

Need to wait till mid/late Dec for some

C'MON!!!!!!

[Hawk]

...a few years before we see 20cm+ snows again? Hmmm..the moisture is right there. That prediction could get busted up this season

[stuffradio]

I see that El Nino will peak around Jan 2024 and start going down according to the ECMWF seasonal.

ps2png-worker-commands-76898cbbf-x2whw-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-Pw1SiS.png

[Catnip]

December outlook on today's extended EPS.

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