November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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HarrisonSasquatchWx
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

stuffradio wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 10:13 am The 00Z EPSgram has some model members dropping down to ~-15C. Craziness
2023111100_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png
:shock: Are we in the game for an Arctic blast still or just a fart and a pat on the butt captain Stuffs. :wtf:
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Abby_wx wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 7:51 am 24 mm storm total in Mission. Don't know about the wind but if I had to guess near 70 km/h overnight. Light winds now. Didn't notice any damage driving around but a lot of leaves off the trees.

Forecast says rain all day today but dry currently and I'm seeing blue sky. Front moved through very fast, not seeing much behind it.
There you go Abbs Sr in Mission you doubled my rain total. :thumbup: the one thing l enjoyed about Mission you've got all the shopping stores you need without having to cross the bridge including the theaters down at the J as l called it saw many movies there in my 5 years spent in Mission plus many meals at Boston Pizza and White Spot still miss Mission. :thumbup:
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Nov 09, 2023 5:01 pm The fact is nobody knows what will happen this winter. But my guess is that our 1968/69 redux will come during a winter that is forecasted to be mild and dry. :clap: :lol:
We kinda do, tho. Our chance of snow and cold is now till the end of December. I'm just being realistic. Everything we have seen shows January onwards it's El Nino time and torching.

Now, that doesn't mean we won't see anything but the clock is ticking.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

AbbyJr wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:20 pm Is it just bad luck, a coincidence, or is there a scientific explanation as to why January rarely performs now while February often does way better than in the past? I'm really curious. :think:
Climate change lol
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Nordelian »

stuffradio wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 10:13 am The 00Z EPSgram has some model members dropping down to ~-15C. Craziness
2023111100_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png
Those members are less than 25% odds though

Most are above -5
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Weather101 wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 11:32 am We kinda do, tho. Our chance of snow and cold is now till the end of December. I'm just being realistic. Everything we have seen shows January onwards it's El Nino time and torching.

Now, that doesn't mean we won't see anything but the clock is ticking.
We have gotten some decent snow and/or cold during January when in El Nino's before... see 1966, 1973, 1978, 1998, or 2007.

(Excluding the extreme outlier in 1969)

I do agree, however, it is unlikely, especially when factoring in our overall January climate shift since 1993.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-11.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-11T.png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-11T1.png



------------------------------------------
20231111210045-7b56040519bedf83a28cb457ad2f898bf9aa9fe6.png
20231111210035-9b63d02c1251462c375926d0a381bde21c9aa2c6.png
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

:alert: On this day in 1911, downtown Vancouver had a high/low of -4.4c/-12.2c with a trace of snow. :alert:

:chilly:
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

We reached a blustery high of 13c at the pond in south Sardis today.
Last edited by HarrisonSasquatchWx on Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:17 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

We received 16.5mm in the pond in south Sardis since midnight.
Last edited by HarrisonSasquatchWx on Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

How are the snow maps looking. :?
Last edited by HarrisonSasquatchWx on Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 1:01 pm 12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-11.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-11T.png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image - 2023-11-11T1.png




------------------------------------------
20231111210045-7b56040519bedf83a28cb457ad2f898bf9aa9fe6.png
20231111210035-9b63d02c1251462c375926d0a381bde21c9aa2c6.png
Mountain snows a least. :thumbup:
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Mattman »

Abby_wx wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 7:51 am 24 mm storm total in Mission. Don't know about the wind but if I had to guess near 70 km/h overnight. Light winds now. Didn't notice any damage driving around but a lot of leaves off the trees.

Forecast says rain all day today but dry currently and I'm seeing blue sky. Front moved through very fast, not seeing much behind it.

Welcome to Mission. We do get more t-storm activity than Abby, and sometimes get more snow than the doughnut hole of Abbotsford. A couple weeks before we moved from Abbotsford to Mission in January 2020, we took our kids and drove by our soon-to-be house. It was hours before the Arctic front barrelled through. Here on 7th there was ~8" of snow when it was only a slushy trace in Abbotsford. That bench sure helps with the orographic lift at times.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Flashback to October 1962. What an insane windstorm. Abbotsford airport recorded a peak gust of 145 km/h. :shock: :shock: :shock:

xx_reanalyse-en-196-0_modera5_196210130300_5618_149.png
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

AbbyJr wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:10 pm Flashback to October 1962. What an insane windstorm. Abbotsford airport recorded a peak gust of 145 km/h. :shock: :shock: :shock:


xx_reanalyse-en-196-0_modera5_196210130300_5618_149.png
Hurricane Freda, l was 3 but my parents talked about it for years l remember on the old forum someone posted pics and an article about all the damage city wide.
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