November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Catnip]

Last map.. I promise.

The weeklies precip anomoly through Dec.... also #dry

#elnino

weeklies.png

[AbbyJr]

Last map.. I promise.

The weeklies precip anomoly through Dec.... also #dry

#elnino

weeklies.png

It's a good thing I don't trust the models beyond 5 days.

[Catnip]

It's a good thing I don't trust the models beyond 5 days.

Yup, good thinking.

The rest of this month will be on the dry side.

As for Dec...

[Catnip]

Sorry about all those dry maps Bono... not what you want to see, I know.

[Bonovox]

Sorry about all those dry maps Bono... not what you want to see, I know.

An epic December will make up for it!

[wetcoast91]

How about 1972-73 and 1982-83 as well?

That's our old climate. You know...when January used to be cold?

Last map.. I promise.

The weeklies precip anomoly through Dec.... also #dry

#elnino

weeklies.png

Think tumbleweeds and cacti.

[Typeing3]

An epic December will make up for it!

December 1972 repeat!

First half icebox followed by a second half filled with rain storms...

[Bonovox]

December 1972 repeat!

First half icebox followed by a second half filled with rain storms...

I’d like to flip that around. First half filled with rain storms and then into the icebox!

[Hound]

Horrific news for the ski resorts as they have no base up there.

True... local mountains have hardly any snow yet:

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[Hawk]

88mm has fallen at the airport so far this month.

There is a chance of the airport receiving only around 100mm this month, the wettest month of the year historically.

I tried to look up the average, Typer or Goose have a better handling on those stats, but I found a value of 185 ish.

I've recorded around 135mm imby.

The great November2023 Drowt

[Hawk]

Last map.. I promise.

The weeklies precip anomoly through Dec.... also #dry

#elnino

weeklies.png

Lets look at the positives now...
In the Similkameeeeens, a lack of precip means the lakes may freeze over clean as Glass in a few weeks. Yessssss
and

[AbbyJr]

December 1972 repeat!

First half icebox followed by a second half filled with rain storms...

Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" had 1972/73 as his top analog for this winter.

[Weather101]

[Weather101]

Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" had 1972/73 as his top analog for this winter.

Lol he's definitely wish casting. We will see snow tho.

[AbbyJr]

Lol he's definitely wish casting. We will see snow tho.

I watched his forecast video. He was clearly using evidence based reasoning. Looking at the current conditions in the tropical pacific compared with 1972/73, there are a lot of similarities. While there is no guarantee the same outcome will verify, Pete Parsons is a meteorologist and is not interested in simply wish casting.