December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[tyweather]

Merry torchmas

[Monty]

The pattern the next 10 days is about as ugly as it gets. Just meandering systems dying a slow death as the slide south off to our west. My target this winter has been the first half of January for some winter weather. The clock is ticking on winter . Even if El Niño is peaking early, seasonal lag would suggest a higher likelihood of warmer and possibly drier weather as we head towards February

[AbbyJr]

The pattern the next 10 days is about as ugly as it gets. Just meandering systems dying a slow death as the slide south off to our west. My target this winter has been the first half of January for some winter weather. The clock is ticking on winter . Even if El Niño is peaking early, seasonal lag would suggest a higher likelihood of warmer and possibly drier weather as we head towards February

[Monty]

Something like January 98 feels like it could be in the realm of possibility. Cool to cold but probably a little on the dry side.

[Bonovox]

Something like January 98 feels like it could be in the realm of possibility. Cool to cold but probably a little on the dry side.

This was Jan 1998 at YVR. Not bad.

[Catnip]

Today's weeklies show below normal 2m temps for all of Jan (average temps).

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[Typeing3]

That's insane Thot could we hit 18c, Christmas 1980 memories revisited. 3.3mm since midnight in the pond in south Sardis and it's currently 5c.

The Christmas 1980 heatwave was a beast... seeing extreme warmth like that again is extremely unlikely.

Never say never though!

[AbbyJr]

Today's weeklies show below normal 2m temps for all of Jan (average temps).





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I think a major pattern change is likely come January. Somewhere in North America is going to get cold. But it's way too soon to know where exactly the cold will ultimately end up. But with the possibility of a major SSW event, there could be a lot of cold to tap into when the pattern does flip.

Would be nice to see a February 2019 pattern in January but that's probably asking too much.

[Catnip]

I think a major pattern change is likely come January. Somewhere in North America is going to get cold. But it's way too soon to know where exactly the cold will ultimately end up. With the possibility of a major SSW event, there could be a lot of cold to tap into when the pattern does flip.

Would be nice to see a February 2019 pattern in January but that's probably asking too much.

Ya, I'll gladly give up the greatness that is #FEB this year to have a decent #JAN!

[Bonovox]

FWIW, the Euro has the MJO in phase 1 going into phase 8 and the GEFS has it in phase 1 by the end of the month.

[Bonovox]

FWIW, the Euro has the MJO in phase 1 going into phase 8 and the GEFS has it on phase 1 by the end of the month.

And the corresponding Temp composites.

[AbbyJr]

Ya, I'll gladly give up the greatness that is #FEB this year to have a decent #JAN!

I think at the very least, we will see a short lived backdoor arctic blast sometime in January.

[Bonovox]

Ya, I'll gladly give up the greatness that is #FEB this year to have a decent #JAN!

Me too!

[stuffradio]

And the corresponding Temp composites.

If I remember correctly, are you supposed to use the map that starts with the month previous to the current month you're observing? So for December you would use NDJ and for January it would be DJF. If that's the case, this map would be valid for January.

[Hawk]

Meantime in the Similkameeeens today a reported 3" of new snow for a base of 4" and