December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

Been seeing some flies lately , today walked through a cluster of large dark mosquitoes. Strange considering I've hardly seen any in my area all year. And what's a stink bug doing in my condo bathroom? Did it come from the drain or is winter done like dinner? I can see Nito reaching for his fork.

Bare mountains, green grass, bugs are lively and the bulbs are sprouting in soils.

[Forrest Gump]

Gotta hand it to John, his invention has reached the century mark, and it still works.

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[PortKells]

I for one am loving this weather. When you get old this is much easier. 10 degrees right now close to the pond.

About a year ago we had a -10 or so high temp, before getting absolutely smashed with 50 cm of pure powder. What a difference a year makes.

[AbbyJr]

While there are still no guarantees, I'm getting more and more interested in the mid-January timeframe. All three major long range models show high latitude blocking with a trough in the west. However, the timing seems to be aligning with the potential SSW event, which may indicate that the potential pattern change is highly dependent on the verification of the possible SSW event. Time will tell but it's too early to cancel winter.

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[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z ECMWF ensembles:

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00z GEM ensembles:

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[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Barely pulled it off but a win is a win!

This is true Granddaddyp2233 it's been just an outstanding season so far. sure beats the heck out of watching "It's A Wonderful Life" about 10 times by now.
It's currently 7c @ the pond in south Sardis the overnight low was a mild 5c.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

About a year ago we had a -10 or so high temp, before getting absolutely smashed with 50 cm of pure powder. What a difference a year makes.

Depressing Kells oh well l'm enjoying the holiday season coming up nonetheless.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Agree , easier on the arthritis, less WD40 needed.

[HughCorne]

Cypress closed tomorrow, not unexpected but still a huge bummer.

[wetcoast91]

GFS keeps showing a progressive pattern taking over after 7 days. However this has been advertised for a while now. A faint chance of a White Christmas on the 12z run with a kink in the 500mb pattern leading to a transtionary trough bringing some cooler air aloft.

The Euro is more realistic with the trough axis shifting slightly east ward but keeps a splittier scenario.

Even a blend of the two means drier than average with above nornal temps.

[stuffradio]

GFS keeps showing a progressive pattern taking over after 7 days. However this has been advertised for a while now. A faint chance of a White Christmas on the 12z run with a kink in the 500mb pattern leading to a transtionary trough bringing some cooler air aloft.

The Euro is more realistic with the trough axis shifting slightly east ward but keeps a splittier scenario.

Even a blend of the two means drier than average with above nornal temps.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png

gfs_asnow_nwus_34.png

[Catnip]

Last night's run of the extended GEFS is still advertising a change to below normal temps around the 2nd week of January. It means nothing at this point but it has been showing this for the last week or so.

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[wetcoast91]

Last night's run of the extended GEFS is still advertising a change to below normal temps around the 2nd week of January. It means nothing at this point but it has been showing this for the last week or so.



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Euro says until then.

[AbbyJr]

Major arctic blast in the clown range. Only 984 hours away. Lock it in.

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[Mattman]

About a year ago we had a -10 or so high temp, before getting absolutely smashed with 50 cm of pure powder. What a difference a year makes.

As a kid growing up in Kelowna, on Christmas Day 1991 our family went for a bike ride it was so warm that El Niño. The preceding and following Christmas Days were anything but cycling weather.