Looks like 4 or 5 members drop below -10
January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
- PortKells
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- Bonovox
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
For an ensemble mean, that looks pretty good.
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Spring/Summer Fall/Winter
Delta (Sunshine Hills) - Elevation: 280 feet
Wx Station: https://tempestwx.com/station/41362/grid
Delta (Sunshine Hills) - Elevation: 280 feet
Wx Station: https://tempestwx.com/station/41362/grid
- AbbyJr
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Yeah right 18Z GFS but nice try... thank you clowns for entertaining us.
That said, putting the ridiculously silly clown range GFS runs aside, I do think there is solid evidence in the models for at least several sub freezing days and possible low elevation snows in mid January. But there will likely be a model collapse as we near the event as usual and then models will go back to showing cold. It wouldn't be a model ride without the classic rug pull.
That said, putting the ridiculously silly clown range GFS runs aside, I do think there is solid evidence in the models for at least several sub freezing days and possible low elevation snows in mid January. But there will likely be a model collapse as we near the event as usual and then models will go back to showing cold. It wouldn't be a model ride without the classic rug pull.
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Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
AbbyJr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 5:46 pm Yeah right 18Z GFS but nice try... thank you clowns for entertaining us.
That said, putting the ridiculously silly clown range GFS runs aside, I do think there is solid evidence in the models for at least several sub freezing days and possible low elevation snows in mid January. But there will likely be a model collapse as we near the event as usual and then models will go back to showing cold. It wouldn't be a model ride without the classic rug pull.
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-5233600.png
That’s legit cold bro
- Monty
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
About as good as it gets at this range. I like that we have northerly flow along the coast with the trough centered to our east. It’s going to be, as usual, any shortwaves rounding the top of the ridge and digging back into the block that are the most likely to bring us the real arctic air and snow.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
- stuffradio
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
The 18Z is crazy. Here's another map here
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- Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
For YVR:stuffradio wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 7:58 pm The 18Z is crazy. Here's another map here
gfs-ensemble-extended-all-CYXX-indiv_snow-4067200.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
- Storm
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- wetcoast91
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Most likely scenario shaping up on the models. Glancing blow with a pattern change that delivers a quick blast of low elevation snows followed by a coolish pattern with the cold air eventually sliding into the midwest and eastern US.
Could get some before that ridge develops overhead and caps in some low level cold air. Not ideal for the ski resorts though.
Could get some before that ridge develops overhead and caps in some low level cold air. Not ideal for the ski resorts though.
- AbbyJr
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Clown range snowstorm on the 00Z GEM
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Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
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- AbbyJr
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
When it comes to snowfall here, I consider anything more than 48 hours out to be clown range.
Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
- AbbyJr
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
Very reasonable forecast at this point.wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 8:48 pm Most likely scenario shaping up on the models. Glancing blow with a pattern change that delivers a quick blast of low elevation snows followed by a coolish pattern with the cold air eventually sliding into the midwest and eastern US.
Could get some before that ridge develops overhead and caps in some low level cold air. Not ideal for the ski resorts though.
Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
- Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions
AF having a lot of fun with this.
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It's called clown range for a reason.
- Rubus_Leucodermis
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