January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

:14clown: This would be nice. Leading snow as the arctic front sweeps in. Temperatures check out.
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-instant_ptype_6hr_mm-4996000.png
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-5017600.png
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Weather101
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:30 am :14clown: This would be nice. Leading snow as the arctic front sweeps in. Temperatures check out.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-instant_ptype_6hr_mm-4996000.png
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-5017600.png
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VanCitySouth
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Catnip wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:29 am GEM ensembles on the other hand….

66C15E21-EDE0-449F-8300-E14D01C78659.jpeg
Ehh the GEM will figure it out eventually. I actually think given past performance, the GFS is onto something. It's too extreme and it'll 100% get dialed back and delayed a few days, but it'll be cold enough. Remember, Jan 2020, the GFS was the first to latch on, about 13 days out IIRC, and consistently predicted the same thing over and over again for 13 whole days without backing down (until finally pulling back just a bit toward reality in the final 48 hours). TBH it was one of the most impressive model performances for a specific instance of weather that I've seen.
Last edited by VanCitySouth on Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
2025-26 season stats:
Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
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Monty
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Catnip wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:56 am Neetz, can you translate this:

“ MJO slowing over IPWP in perfect destructive interference w/ LP —> -EAMT —> massive RWB series across the NH all projecting onto NAM”

:think: :think:
Something about East Asian mountain torque. Rossby wave breakers and northern angular momentum. ———> typical El Niño pattern is going to be over whelmed for the time being.
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Weather101
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Nito trying to convince us it won't snow

Showtime
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:39 am Something about East Asian mountain torque. Rossby wave breakers and northern angular momentum. ———> typical El Niño pattern is going to be over whelmed for the time being.
He could easily say it like that but he likes to show off. Which isn't really much of a show off tbh lol.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:13 am This would ge the biggest overrunning event. Correct me if I am wrong.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh348-378.gif
Shows precip, but I bet that precip shield would evaporate with the outflow. Would need that low to track further north.

Some 15 days for this to work out.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Weather101 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:40 am Nito trying to convince us it won't snow

Showtime
He may be regretting his Winter Cancel call right now.

:think:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Catnip
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Hoping to see a continued theme with

Image
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Catnip wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:46 am He may be regretting his Winter Cancel call right now.

:think:
Still time for this to bust! :dancepine:
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:49 am Still time for this to bust! :dancepine:
Unfortunately....

:lol:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Catnip
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Bono!

:wave:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:49 am Still time for this to bust! :dancepine:
There's ALWAYS time for this to bust. It's the Pacific Northwest.

2009/2010 ring any bells?
2025-26 season stats:
Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

A quick pepto map before I rush out the door!
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Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Weather101 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:42 am He could easily say it like that but he likes to show off. Which isn't really much of a show off tbh lol.
I'll take El Neeters explanation every time. :arrow:
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