January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[VanCitySouth]

But does there? June 2021 winter edition.

June 2021 was ROUGH. I don't even want to think about it.

[Storm]

Vlad is on board.

Screenshot_20240103_151510_X.jpg

[wetcoast91]

Vlad is on board.
Screenshot_20240103_151510_X.jpg

So is the evil sky clown.

[Catnip]

18Z Ensembles have warmed a couple of degrees.

Jan 12 snapshot.

Ensemble mean is -9.5c
OP is -17.5c

[wetcoast91]

18Z Ensembles have warmed a couple of degrees.

Jan 12 snapshot.

Ensemble mean is -9.5c
OP is -17.5c

It's over.

[PortKells]

But does there? June 2021 winter edition.

I don’t think this is remotely as extreme but I could be wrong. The hottest days got to 44 which is about 20 degrees hotter than average. I’m guessing the cold equivalent would be -20 or so..maybe colder.

[PortKells]

So is the evil sky clown.

Most insane ridge ever modelled in multiple ways?

[Catnip]

It's over.

Apparently if it's the GEFS it doesn't matter... so I guess it's not over?

[Catnip]

chart.jpeg

[Monty]

Is this lower or higher than before? IF we stay warmer but get juicier amounts of snow, who can complain? All we want is to get cold enough for an awesome dump of snow to make it feel like winter.

Odds are increasing right now. I’d say if we don’t hit -10 we might end up with the snowier scenario

[stuffradio]

June 2021 was ROUGH. I don't even want to think about it.

I locked myself in the basement during that time. I would lock myself in the basement again if we were getting temps -15 to -20 as well.

[Catnip]

Odds are increasing right now. I’d say if we don’t hit -10 we might end up with the snowier scenario

Yeah, that's always the trade off... Beggar's can't be choosers, but I vote for the snowier/more moderate solution.

[AbbyJr]

While there is still a lot of uncertainty as for the details, if the Euro and GEM hang on tonight then my confidence in this arctic blast will significantly increase. The last time I remember all the models coming into agreement at roughly the same time is February 2017. That pattern verified. Of course there were some changes to the details but the general pattern was spot on. However, I'm still approaching this cautiously as we are still 7 days out. The model shift in February 2017 happened around 4 days out so it's not a perfect comparison.

But having said all of that, at this point I'd be surprised if we don't get at least a few sub freezing days with some low elevation snows. That in and of itself would be a big win in a strong El Niño. Time will tell but hold on tight as the model ride continues.

By the way, I've got some more Pineapple Crush to ensure future runs trend colder. Let's crush those pineapples.

IMG_0023.jpeg

[AbbyJr]

I don’t think this is remotely as extreme but I could be wrong. The hottest days got to 44 which is about 20 degrees hotter than average. I’m guessing the cold equivalent would be -20 or so..maybe colder.

You are correct. No June 2021 winter edition. Darn.

[AbbyJr]

I can't believe people on the American forums are actually complaining about the 18Z GFS. It's 7 days out. What are they expecting?

By the way, it's still a great run. If it were to verify it would still be a big win for a strong El Niño. Hard to find any reason to be disappointed.