January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[John]

Russ lactate is surprisingly absent on twitter today lol

Maybe that’s why he got let go

[Weather101]

Russ lactate is surprisingly absent on twitter today lol

Maybe that’s why he got let go

He has a busy life outside of Twitter lol

[Weather101]

I can't believe people on the American forums are actually complaining about the 18Z GFS. It's 7 days out. What are they expecting?

By the way, it's still a great run. If it were to verify it would still be a big win for a strong El Niño. Hard to find any reason to be disappointed.

Sometimes, they post like the arctic blast is no longer being shown. Then you check yourself and are like wtf are they smoking

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Sometimes, they post like the arctic blast is no longer being shown. Then you check yourself and are like wtf are they smoking

But it falls short of what happened in 1969 during an El Niño therefore it is a total dud!

[Weather101]

But it falls short of what happened in 1969 during an El Niño therefore it is a total dud!

Automatically doesn't count !

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Uh-oh, @Weather101, looks like you just hurt someone’s feelings over on the AF!

[Weather101]

Chris Doyle isn't completely sold " yet"

[Weather101]

Uh-oh, @Weather101, looks like you just hurt someone’s feelings over on the AF!

Lol all I said was " let's not get carried away with saying this will be historical yet"

And boom they were ready lmao

[Typeing3]

But does there? June 2021 winter edition.

The nearest cold equivalent to the June 2021 heat wave in the last 150 years would be the January/February 1893 arctic blast -- see the numbers here: viewtopic.php?t=1171

The chances of something like that ever happening again is basically nil, especially in our current climate.

[AbbyJr]

The nearest cold equivalent to the June 2021 heat wave in the last 150 years would be the January/February 1893 arctic blast -- see the numbers here: viewtopic.php?t=1171

The chances of something like that ever happening again is basically nil, especially in our current climate.

But if some of the model solutions verify and it locks in, we could at least break the January curse.

[Monty]

While there is still a lot of uncertainty as for the details, if the Euro and GEM hang on tonight then my confidence in this arctic blast will significantly increase. The last time I remember all the models coming into agreement at roughly the same time is February 2017. That pattern verified. Of course there were some changes to the details but the general pattern was spot on. However, I'm still approaching this cautiously as we are still 7 days out. The model shift in February 2017 happened around 4 days out so it's not a perfect comparison.

But having said all of that, at this point I'd be surprised if we don't get at least a few sub freezing days with some low elevation snows. That in and of itself would be a big win in a strong El Niño. Time will tell but hold on tight as the model ride continues.

By the way, I've got some more Pineapple Crush to ensure future runs trend colder. Let's crush those pineapples.


IMG_0023.jpeg

The February 2017 model shift was pretty epic.

[Monty]

The nearest cold equivalent to the June 2021 heat wave in the last 150 years would be the January/February 1893 arctic blast -- see the numbers here: viewtopic.php?t=1171

The chances of something like that ever happening again is basically nil, especially in our current climate.

The June 2021 ridge was something like a 1 in 500 year event. I don’t believe the a winter edition of that is even possible in our current climate state

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The June 2021 ridge was something like a 1 in 500 year event. I don’t believe the a winter edition of that is even possible in our current climate state

High temperatures around 22ËšC in January.

[Monty]

High temperatures around 22ËšC in January.

I meant on the cold side. Like breaking all time record lows by 5C.

[Storm]

Icon coming in colder