January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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wetcoast91
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:10 pm Poor Sardineman, only 7 cm.
Need a snow map for PDX
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HarrisonSasquatchWx
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:10 pm Poor Sardineman, only 7 cm.
Nope l'll be in Abby next week for afew day's. :thumbup: Slyts will be coaching the measurement next week.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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tyweather
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Phantom snow Saturday?
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Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Monty
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:54 pm What gives me more confidence about this pattern verifying is the off the charts -NAO. Seems to me that it's driving the -PNA pattern. This has SSW written all over it. Models split the PV and a very strong -NAO develops and forces high latitude blocking. This could actually work out for us.

That said, there is still time for this to bust and while I am obviously biased, I think there is a good chance of an exciting winter event here.

:team: :chilly: :snowman:
Alaska block looks a little weaker on the 0z GEFS but the -NAO is even more robust. That should keep things blocked up. Pacific jet still looking held back more than the 12Z.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:56 pm Alaska block looks a little weaker on the 0z GEFS but the -NAO is even more robust. That should keep things blocked up. Pacific jet still looking held back more than the 12Z.
The one consolation if this does for some reason bust will be the resulting meltdown on the AF.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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AbbyJr
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:56 pm Alaska block looks a little weaker on the 0z GEFS but the -NAO is even more robust. That should keep things blocked up. Pacific jet still looking held back more than the 12Z.
Agreed. As long as we keep that off the charts -NAO, I think a very cold pattern will verify. No need to get caught up in the details and the run to run fluctuations this far out. The overall theme of high latitude blocking is still very much in tact on the models. Still many runs to go. :thumbup:
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HarrisonSasquatchWx
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Any ideas when Wpro 1.0 makes an appearance l'm thinking this weekend if the models are still showing this epic event. :wtf: :o
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

:bang: :bang: :bang:

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5125600.png
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Central Abbotsford
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Eewwww. Next!
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Monty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:02 pmEewwww. Next!
It is just one run but it makes me a bit nervous given the 00Z GFS also took a step back. I'm interested in seeing the ensembles. :thumbup:
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:07 pm It is just one run but it makes me a bit nervous given the 00Z GFS also took a step back. I'm interested in seeing the ensembles. :thumbup:
It was bound to happen. To good to be true
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Looks like the American forum is down again. Maybe a precautionary measure given the 00Z trends? :roll: :lol:
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

John wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:08 pm It was bound to happen. To good to be true
There is also almost always a rug pull prior to every arctic blast that has verified. So no need to panic yet. :thumbup:
Central Abbotsford
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:10 pm There is also almost always a rug pull prior to every arctic blast that has verified. So no need to panic yet. :thumbup:
850s bottom out at around -10C. Pretty much inline with the majority of the ensembles recently.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:09 pm Looks like the American forum is down again. Maybe a precautionary measure given the 00Z trends? :roll: :lol:
I think Fred’s been doing maintenance
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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