January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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AbbyJr
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

The 12Z Spire looks similar to the 12Z GEM:
spire-forecast-basic-namer-z500_anom-5104000.png
gem-all-namer-z500_anom-5190400.png
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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PortKells
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:23 am The 12Z Spire looks similar to the 12Z GEM:

spire-forecast-basic-namer-z500_anom-5104000.png

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-5190400.png
The who what now?
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Storm
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

No surprise here. Operational is warm outlier.
ens_image.png
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LadnerWeather
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by LadnerWeather »

PortKells wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:26 am The who what now?
Must be a new AI model :think:
Currently located in Tsawwassen, beside Tsawwassen Mills
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LadnerWeather
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by LadnerWeather »

Storm wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:27 am No surprise here. Operational is warm outlier.
ens_image.png
GEM ensembles are looking a bit improved. OP is still in the cold camp but it’s definitely not alone and some get even colder than the OP
Currently located in Tsawwassen, beside Tsawwassen Mills
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PortKells
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Gem Kuch snowfall totals:
gem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5212000.png
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wetcoast91
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Probability of seeing snow is very high.
Probability of seeing colder than normal temps is high.
Probability of seeing a historic blast is still low.
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PortKells
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

LadnerWeather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:29 am GEM ensembles are looking a bit improved. OP is still in the cold camp but it’s definitely not alone and some get even colder than the OP
The GEM has a warm bias too. I'm pretty encouraged by this. The GFS is waffling, more news at 6. The Euro would be nice to have on board today but there's still time.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:33 am Probability of seeing snow is very high.
Probability of seeing colder than normal temps is high.
Probability of seeing a historic blast is still low.
Works for me.

A historic blast would end up being pretty dry… at least that’s my thought.

:chilly: :flakey: > :chilly: :chilly: :chilly: :chilly:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Storm
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:33 am Probability of seeing snow is very high.
Probability of seeing colder than normal temps is high.
Probability of seeing a historic blast is still low.
That definitely is not happening
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PortKells
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:33 am Probability of seeing snow is very high.
Probability of seeing colder than normal temps is high.
Probability of seeing a historic blast is still low.
When was the last truly historic blast anyways? 1969?

the 2020's have been absolutely impressive when you consider the ****ed climate. I'm not going to complain if something isn't historic. Getting winter in general is good enough for me.
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Weather101
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Storm wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:36 am That definitely is not happening
Tell that to the AF forum
All about them Cowboys !!! 🤠 🤠
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Weather101 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:37 am Tell that to the AF forum
Certainly the all or nothing type crowd down there.

:mrgreen:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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PortKells
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

LadnerWeather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:27 am Must be a new AI model :think:
My wife told me there's apparently AI models coming out that will put these ones to shame, so maybe. The question is, will we be purists or will we immediately grab onto them if they are more accurate?
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Mattman
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Mattman »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:23 am The 12Z Spire looks similar to the 12Z GEM:

spire-forecast-basic-namer-z500_anom-5104000.png

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-5190400.png
It’s the 12z Spire (Skynet) from yesterday. Curious to see what the T1000 spits out today.
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