January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[VanCitySouth]

I think a heat wave version of this modelled blast would be like +38 in the valley. Very hot but still far off that one that shall not be named.

It'll be the cold equivalent of The Event Which Must Not Be Named if we see a 2m temp of -26C at YXX because it would need to break the existing all time record by 5C. But maybe factoring in the rise in ambient global temperature -22/23C would be the approximate benchmark to deem it the cold equivalent of You Know When.

[Catnip]

EPS 2m temps Sunday am

sun am.png

[Storm]

EPS much improved.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_dprog-5147200.png

[wetcoast91]

EPS much improved.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_dprog-5147200.png

[Storm]

Tyler Hamilton has been super quiet.

[Catnip]

Screenshot 2024-01-04 at 11-07-29 Ryan Maue on X Well the ECMWF HRES 12z model update puts an end to the Northwest U.S. with the most brutal Arctic blast possible. Nice knowing y'all. 77.7°F below normal temperatur[...].png

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[Storm]

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Hmm. He is very measured usually

[PortKells]

Hmm. He is very measured usually

I'm not saying it won't happen but there was an even more insane Euro run last winter and the final result was very cold but nothing out of the ordinary. It'll likely moderate to something more manageable. It's just one run.

[John]

Hmm. He is very measured usually

Yeah seems like a bit of an over reaction for one computer run but who knows?

[John]

Tyler Hamilton has been super quiet.

Aka weatherpro?

[John]

Aka weatherpro?

Expect an appearance tonight!

[Monty]

This is probably one the most intense arctic blasts I've ever seen on the Euro within 10 days. Absolutely insane.

Maps are valid for Friday January 12th at 4:00PM.

500mb:
ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5104000.png


2m temperature:
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-5104000.png


Wind chill:
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-apparent_temperature_c-5104000.png

Don’t think I’ve seen anything colder from the Euro before. It seems to occasionally toy with 850s around -20C in the long range.

[Catnip]

EPS Day 6-11 Averages

2m

eps 6-11.png

850s

eps 850 6-11.png

[VanCitySouth]

Hmm. He is very measured usually

I mean, I think he's talking about the -50-60F modeled for the folks the interior/Rockies because this will still be hella dangerous for them if it's -30-40F instead. Notice he said NW and not PNW.

For us specifically in the PNW things aren't quite so dire on the "dangerous temperatures" front. It'll still get cold, but we ain't the interior.

[Abby_wx]

I'm not saying it won't happen but there was an even more insane Euro run last winter and the final result was very cold but nothing out of the ordinary. It'll likely moderate to something more manageable. It's just one run.

Yes, exactly. We've seen all this before. I'm still looking forward to some cold and potential snow, but only time will tell how "historic" it will be (if at all).