January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Low of -9.3 , no double digits for me.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

The surface temps initiation from 00z last night.
trend-ecmwf_full-2024011412-f000.sfct-imp.us_nw.gif
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:54 am The surface temps initiation from 00z last night. trend-ecmwf_full-2024011412-f000.sfct-imp.us_nw.gif
It's over.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Weather101 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:50 am We all overdue for a ice storm tbh.. we have been lucky in the past years...

Hopefully we don't see that
How was the Toronto snowmaggedon? I heard the Leafs had an unfortunate Avalanche situation yesterday :thumbup:
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:56 amIt's over.
Terrible trend, that thing that already happened!
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

ec-fast_T850_nwus_fh48_trend.gif
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Look better.
ec-fast_T850_nwus_fh72_trend (1).gif
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:08 am Look better.
ec-fast_T850_nwus_fh72_trend (1).gif
Northern energy is so weak. That low will still probably track through Central Vancouver Island.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Trough isn't going to phase on this run. Just hangs around north and keeps any reinforcing cold air aloft at bay.

12Z
Image

0Z
Image

Gross...this will likely be mostly ice.

Edit: Apparantly not?

Image
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-5557600.png
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_cm-5557600.png
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:16 am ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-5557600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_cm-5557600.png
Wow. That is a razors edge. The border is our shield.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:20 am Wow. That is a razors edge. The border is our shield.
I'm nervous about the 925mb temperatures hovering right around 0-1C. Anything above 0C would be ice pellets or freezing rain, right?

That said, I've noticed that the Euro tends to have a warm bias. The low track looks perfect so that's all that matters. :thumbup: :flakey:
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:22 am I'm nervous about the 925mb temperatures hovering right around 0-1C. Anything above 0C would be ice pellets or freezing rain, right?
I thought we needed -2 for snow to be honest. But maybe it's a little different with cold air entrenched.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:13 am Trough isn't going to phase on this run. Just hangs around north and keeps any reinforcing cold air aloft at bay.

12Z
Image

0Z
Image

Gross...this will likely be mostly ice.

Edit: Apparantly not?

Image
You are loosing your touch.
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