January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

As seen on reddit. Skating on Trout Lake today.

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Someone mentioned they drilled to measure ice thickness and its just short of 3" currently.

[AbbyJr]

The 18Z RGEM continues its discouraging trends. Looks like 5-10cm of snow followed by up to 20mm of freezing rain.

rgem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5528800.png

rgem-all-vancouverski-frzr_total_mm-5528800.png

[Catnip]

Trendz =
namconus_T850_nwus_fh66_trend.gif
namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_fh66_trend.gif

I kinda like the Trendz that Stormer posts better.

[AbbyJr]

On a more positive note, at least freezing rain makes everything look pretty.

[Storm]

I kinda like the Trendz that Stormer posts better.

Honestly NAM is all over the place. Let's see Euro tonight.

ecmwf_T850_nwus_fh78_trend.gif

[AbbyJr]

Honestly NAM is all over the place. Let's see Euro tonight.

If tonight's Euro continues to show the snowy solution, I'll be more confident that the other models are lost. But I could easily see a major ice storm.

[Typeing3]

On a more positive note, at least freezing rain makes everything look pretty.

Metro Vancouver has had freezing rain for two winters in a row ('21-22 and '22-23) after going 4 winters ('17-18, '18-19, '19-20, and '20-21) without any.

[wetcoast91]

Nope.



Some wet snow but it's mostly rain since it's a rather mild system and cold air gets tied up in Central BC.


Edit: Does turn it back to wet snow with 3-4"

[Storm]

Nope.



Some wet snow but it's mostly rain since it's a rather mild system and cold air gets tied up in Central BC.


Edit: Does turn it back to wet snow with 3-4"

GFS is underestimating the low level cold. Tho Low track isn't that bad.

Screenshot_20240114_140855_X.jpg

[AbbyJr]

Nope.



Some wet snow but it's mostly rain since it's a rather mild system and cold air gets tied up in Central BC.


Edit: Does turn it back to wet snow with 3-4"

To be honest, I enjoy looking at the GFS runs for fun but I really don't put much stock in what it says, especially with pattern details.

[AbbyJr]

GFS is underestimating the low level cold. Tho Low track isn't that bad.

Yes the GFS is most likely overdoing the warmup but keep in mind that the RGEM also shows mostly freezing rain. The Euro still looks good but it's unfortunately trending warmer with that reinforcing shot of cold. My confidence level in a major snowstorm remains very low for now.

ecmwf-deterministic-wcan-z500_dprog-5536000.png

[Michael1]

We hit zero today.

[Hound]

We sure as hell don't need any freezing rain garbage.
We need snow. At least end this Nino with a nice snowfall.
Then spring can come all it wants.

Had a low of -11 last night.
Now: -2.7
DP: -9

[Forrest Gump]

A Sh*t load of snow

Whoa...how about..dem cowboys?


Currently -3.4°
DP -13°

[Storm]

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