January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hound]

He is not trying.

[Hound]

That's something we can all agree.

Indeed, this is actually quite serious beyond our love for snow. We actually need it! Snowpack is still way low for this time of year.

[Storm]

WeatherPro in da house!

[Pumpkin Seed]

Long range models show developing heights over the GOA by late month. February will deliver something good. Even if it's just a Mountain snow pattern.

When you said “something good”, you always mean pineapples, don’t you?

[wetcoast91]

When you said “something good”, you always mean pineapples, don’t you?

Models keep toying with the idea of another cold wave in the long range.

Indeed, this is actually quite serious beyond our love for snow. We actually need it! Snowpack is still way low for this time of year.

Cold and snow is fun in the lowlands but this often comes at the expense of Mountain snow. We really need to progress into a zonal flow if we want to build up the Mountain snowpack.

[Pumpkin Seed]

Models keep toying with the idea of another cold wave in the long range.

Is it comment for El Niño years like this season?

[WeatherPro]

Snowstorm On The Horizon!!

Well, let's take a stab at this:

This Tuesday/Wednesday have a VERY high chance of delivering a high impact widespread snowfall!
Tonight's models looked more favourable for this to occur. At least as of now, trends are looking good for snow lovers.
We are still in dicey territory though, a few adjustments here and there in tomorrows runs could be better or worse.

If better: You could see 25cm or more across the LM and at higher elevations.
If worse: 10cm or so at higher elevations.
Snow will fall at ALL elevations for sure, and even at sea level there should be high amounts.

Pros: Ground is now frozen, lakes and rivers have ice. Helpful for cooling the area and preventing snow melt.
Cons: Cold air gets trapped at surface and upper levels warm causing freezing rain.

Freezing rain possibility: There is a chance coming out of this snowfall to see freezing rain especially the further east you go into the valley. Hopefully this solution will not come to be.

If the models improve, look to see straight snow and no freezing rain on the first system.

Thursday: Right now, very hard to tell, again, it might just be cold enough for snow, with a higher chance of freezing rain coming out, and then some moderation, however there appears possible another slight reload of colder air, so perhaps a short period of slightly above freezing and then back to cooler weather and further chances of flurries.

I think if you are lucky you will get the snow, and then celebrate. I imagine after this period, things may warm up again, after all, it's El Ninio. But then again, this cold outbreak should not have happened this year, so mother nature does as she wants especially when humans think they are smarter.

So, watch the run tomorrow, hopefully even better, enjoy the snow Tuesday evening/Wednesday, and then see how things go from there. I imagine it will be unpredictable as always. Never easy. But it WILL snow for all at least this time.

I'll check back tomorrow to see if blizzard like conditions may prevail.

[AbbyJr]

Models keep toying with the idea of another cold wave in the long range.




Cold and snow is fun in the lowlands but this often comes at the expense of Mountain snow. We really need to progress into a zonal flow if we want to build up the Mountain snowpack.

That was the GFS run a few days ago. Outdated data.

[wetcoast91]

Is it comment for El Niño years like this season?

It's been a rather atypical El Nino January so far. Not much mid lattitude blocking. California hasn't seen much precip lately.

Then you see this...

[wetcoast91]

That was the GFS run a few days ago. Outdated data.

My bad. This is what it turned into....but still workable for turning into a Mountain pattern. Need a few tweaks

[Pumpkin Seed]

It's been a rather atypical El Nino January so far. Not much mid lattitude blocking. California hasn't seen much precip lately.

Then you see this...

So next month will remain cool or even cold enough for more snow chances?

[Forrest Gump]

-6° here , but what's with Chilliwack, also -6°

[Radar]

-6° here , but what's with Chilliwack, also -6°

That fake cold out west.

[tyweather]

-7.6c out now in Newton. It was -10.3c this morning. Skating on the Fen was great today.

[John]

Snowstorm On The Horizon!!

Well, let's take a stab at this:

This Tuesday/Wednesday have a VERY high chance of delivering a high impact widespread snowfall!
Tonight's models looked more favourable for this to occur. At least as of now, trends are looking good for snow lovers.
We are still in dicey territory though, a few adjustments here and there in tomorrows runs could be better or worse.

If better: You could see 25cm or more across the LM and at higher elevations.
If worse: 10cm or so at higher elevations.
Snow will fall at ALL elevations for sure, and even at sea level there should be high amounts.

Pros: Ground is now frozen, lakes and rivers have ice. Helpful for cooling the area and preventing snow melt.
Cons: Cold air gets trapped at surface and upper levels warm causing freezing rain.

Freezing rain possibility: There is a chance coming out of this snowfall to see freezing rain especially the further east you go into the valley. Hopefully this solution will not come to be.

If the models improve, look to see straight snow and no freezing rain on the first system.

Thursday: Right now, very hard to tell, again, it might just be cold enough for snow, with a higher chance of freezing rain coming out, and then some moderation, however there appears possible another slight reload of colder air, so perhaps a short period of slightly above freezing and then back to cooler weather and further chances of flurries.

I think if you are lucky you will get the snow, and then celebrate. I imagine after this period, things may warm up again, after all, it's El Ninio. But then again, this cold outbreak should not have happened this year, so mother nature does as she wants especially when humans think they are smarter.

So, watch the run tomorrow, hopefully even better, enjoy the snow Tuesday evening/Wednesday, and then see how things go from there. I imagine it will be unpredictable as always. Never easy. But it WILL snow for all at least this time.

I'll check back tomorrow to see if blizzard like conditions may prevail.

If you’re not thanking this message do you even deserve to be on this forum?