January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

This looks good. Euro is pretty much a lock.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_nw.png

[WeatherPro]

By the way John, I think you reached your -18 we were debating. Congrats on that! The cold over-performed my estimate!

Mind you, I cant remember for what specific area we were talking about.

[Storm]

Screenshot_20240114_221503_Samsung Internet.jpg

Kuchera

Screenshot_20240114_221503_Samsung Internet.jpg

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-5536000(1).thumb.png.da7ef49eef65c44e057e65bb99095e38.png

[AbbyJr]

Worth noting that the reason the kuchera totals are lower is because the Euro is running a bit warm. But I find it tends to have a warm bias. It certainly got the surface temperatures wrong during this cold snap. Most importantly, the track of the low looks perfect.

Anyways, here's both the kuchera and 10:1 ratio maps. By the way, even the kuchera totals would be a big score.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-5546800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5546800.png

[Hound]

I'm at -7.4
DP: -13

[AbbyJr]

Clown range potential?

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-6659200.png

[Typeing3]

Clown range potential?


gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-6659200.png

February 2014ish.

[Typeing3]

I'm at -7.4
DP: -13

-8.5c here.

Inversion setting in at night since yesterday with the (relatively) warmer upper level temps.

[Storm]

-8.5c here.

Inversion setting in at night since yesterday with the (relatively) warmer upper level temps.

- 6°C an Grouse

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

-8.5c here.

Inversion setting in at night since yesterday with the (relatively) warmer upper level temps.

-7.8˚C here. I’m warmer than the banana belt!

[tyweather]

-11c Cypress

[Monty]

I’m not seeing much potential for a significant freezing rain event with the first system mid week. 850s look mostly below freezing, especially if we see the more southern low track that the models seem to be moving towards. We could briefly wedge in some milder air at some point which could introduce ice pellets at times but not likely much freezing rain.

[Radar]

Looks to me like the euro was the best at the longer term forecast for this event followed by the gfs. The gem was just dumb along with the cmc junk. Hrdps did best with precip followed by nam.

[Monty]

Looks to me like the euro was the best at the longer term forecast for this event followed by the gfs. The gem was just dumb along with the cmc junk. Hrdps did best with precip followed by nam.

The GEM is the CMC.

[Typeing3]

The GEM is the CMC.

Along with the HRDPS.