January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

I’m not seeing much potential for a significant freezing rain event with the first system mid week. 850s look mostly below freezing, especially if we see the more southern low track that the models seem to be moving towards. We could briefly wedge in some milder air at some point which could introduce ice pellets at times but not likely much freezing rain.

Possible if it takes a more northerly track but tonight's model runs seemed to be trending in the opposite direction -- which could lead to some ZR down the line with the next system. Especially if we see some of that modified arctic air that spills in the interior trickle into the lower mainland in the low's wake on Wednesday.

[Hawk]

Nito is just trying to be a dink don’t let it get to you!

[Hawk]

Wow. EC forecasts have been super solid and now this? Complete disaster warm up. O well..say it isnt so Storm? Not please be kind today Nito..there mat be some fragile hearts in here today

[John]

Wow. EC forecasts have been super solid and now this? Complete disaster warm up. O well..say it isnt so Storm? Not please be kind today Nito..there mat be some fragile hearts in here today

Looks snowy for the valley no?

[wetcoast91]

Media: Bitterly cold to hang around Southern Ontario

Reality: Temps are only a few degrees below normal

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

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20240115143228-fc76c00e7ab0ab03f71a8db13e89fefcfa84c727.png

20240115143213-4b077091223b917c4b73f14648660381299fa1a6.png

[PortKells]

Bowen Island bullseye

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-5611600.png

[PortKells]

icon-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-5611600.png

[PortKells]

RGem is nice because it gives us breathing room:

rgem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-5600800.png

[Typeing3]

Last three days high/low @ YVR
-6.4c/-13.4c
-3.2c/-13.7c
-1.8c/-9.3c

Three day average = -3.8c/-12.1c

Category 3 cold snap on the scale.

[Hawk]

Looks snowy for the valley no?

sloppy mess incoming except E Valley may do ok...based on EC. What are the new models saying??

[John]

sloppy mess incoming except E Valley may do ok...based on EC. What are the new models saying??

Waiting for storm to analyze

[Hawk]

Waiting for storm to analyze

[Hawk]

Looks very dicey...again. Gotta thread the needle again. Probably another nowcast like most snow events around here

[Hawk]

Euro bobbles the Low to our W/SW for a bit..and then pulls in some chilly air behind it as it exits inland just to our south..almost riding the border line. Sorry..cant analyze any more than this