June 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hound]

Big White today... what season is this??

village_551.jpg

[Typeing3]

Big White today... what season is this??


village_551.jpg

Juneuary!

[PortKells]

Big White today... what season is this??


village_551.jpg

An inch of patchy snow that will melt in ten minutes when the sun comes up...definitely June

[PortKells]

For YVR, the last summers (JJA) below 1991-2020 average (17.4°C) were 2020, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2002 [normal], 2001, 2000 and 1999.
If we compare to 1937-2024 average (16.9°C), the last summer below normal was 2011 (16.87°C). Then 2008, 2001, 2000 and 1999.

In the 50's, 60's or 70's, 2011 would have been a warm summer. Even the 1999-2000-2001 cool summers would have been quite warm...


Capture d’écran 2024-06-16 à 14.38.22.jpg

Yeah I guess I go by the old school average. That tells you more IMO. And you nailed it...these summers would not be considered cool as of 50 years ago.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-06-16.png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-06-16T.png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-06-16T1.png

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20240616232222-b6747cfe0d8469ba2c525be96bc0b218924b8a8d.png

20240616232211-110aad2a6d4e32e2454e3d95fbe702726574f3ca.png

[Typeing3]

18z GFS = again next weekend.

Next Saturday:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_25.png

Next Sunday:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_29.png

[Canada Goose]

Would be interesting to see the Tmax average at YVR over the same period. I'd imagine the average is mostly skewed upward due to the increase in the Tmin? IIRC the Tmax hasn't increased to the same extent as the Tmin due to the urban heat island effect being more prominent at night.

Capture d’écran 2024-06-16 à 16.30.23.jpg

Capture d’écran 2024-06-16 à 17.00.15.jpg

[Hawk]

18z GFS = again next weekend.

Next Saturday:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_25.png



Next Sunday:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_29.png

Troff/ridge/troff...repeat
Pretty good for forest fires in southern BC

[Typeing3]

Capture d’écran 2024-06-16 à 16.30.23.jpg

Capture d’écran 2024-06-16 à 17.00.15.jpg

Thanks!

Definitely looks like a relatively pronounced difference between the two.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

They can have it.

https://www.castanetkamloops.net/news/B ... ut-not-B-C

[Mattman]

I have an annual family reunion in Lacombe, AB (just north of Red Deer) this up this weekend. I think EC is too optimistic with Red Deer’s forecast. (If the Oilers survive to game 6, I’ll be among some fellow fans.) Looking at the EPS, the upcoming weekend’s warmth looks to be it for awhile.

[Catnip]

Don't worry Typer, it's still 9/10 days away!

brr.png

[PortKells]

Capture d’écran 2024-06-16 à 16.30.23.jpg

Capture d’écran 2024-06-16 à 17.00.15.jpg

does meteorological summer end sep 1? For me summer seems more like June 15 - sep 15. Early September often has impressive heat waves.

[stuffradio]

does meteorological summer end sep 1? For me summer seems more like June 15 - sep 15. Early September often has impressive heat waves.

Meteorological season ends on the 1st of the month they start. March 1, June 1, September 1, December 1

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Meteorological season ends on the 1st of the month they start. March 1, June 1, September 1, December 1

Perhaps in this new climate it should be reviewed i.e. meteorological summer July 1 to Oct 1 and so on. we reached a spring like high of 16c in the central valley today.