July 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[stuffradio]

I was thinking this morning how I saw 2016 being used as an analog for this Summer in some forecasts. As far as I remember, 2016 was above normal in terms of temps, but the rain came back early. I believe we had rain starting in August or September and then it proceeded into the Fall with a snowy December.

June 2016 had 46mm of rain
July 2016 had 30mm of rain
August 2016 had 14.5mm of rain
September 2016 had 69.5mm of rain
December 2016 had 46cm of snow in one Abbotsford station.

[Coquitlam79]

I was thinking this morning how I saw 2016 being used as an analog for this Summer in some forecasts. As far as I remember, 2016 was above normal in terms of temps, but the rain came back early. I believe we had rain starting in August or September and then it proceeded into the Fall with a snowy December.

June 2016 had 46mm of rain
July 2016 had 30mm of rain
August 2016 had 14.5mm of rain
September 2016 had 69.5mm of rain
December 2016 had 46cm of snow in one Abbotsford station.

October and November 2016 was also literally non-stop rain. We might need that this year. Some models showing no rain for much of Southern BC for the entire month of July. Never a good thing to have it that dry. I go to my cabin at Charlotte lake in the Chilcotin at the end of July and I'm a little concerned. I have the fire hoses and water pumps ready . This is so similar to 2017 where summer was just non stop hot and dry once the calendar switched to July.That was a late start to the fire season and we all remember how that turned out (especially in the Cariboo/Chilcotin region). I'm worried we are going to see something very similar.

[Coquitlam79]

No surprise here. The CPC pivots back to higher probability of hotter than normal for PacNw. And drier. Get used to this. It could get very smoky.

610temp.new-4.gif

[Hawk]

October and November 2016 was also literally non-stop rain. We might need that this year. Some models showing no rain for much of Southern BC for the entire month of July. Never a good thing to have it that dry. I go to my cabin at Charlotte lake in the Chilcotin at the end of July and I'm a little concerned. I have the fire hoses and water pumps ready . This is so similar to 2017 where summer was just non stop hot and dry once the calendar switched to July.That was a late start to the fire season and we all remember how that turned out (especially in the Cariboo/Chilcotin region). I'm worried we are going to see something very similar.

Same in the Similkameeeens. I believe that was the year of the major fire N of Princeton

[Coquitlam79]

Same in the Similkameeeens. I believe that was the year of the major fire N of Princeton

Yes that's right and that year was right up there with 2003 as the worst ever for fires in the Interior. Last year was the worst for area burned but most of that was remote boreal forests in the far North. Not so in 2017 , that was the year that Williams Lake , 100 Mile house and basically the whole Cariboo was evacuated. Province wide state of emergency and many highways closed from early July to mid September. The Chilcotin region burned heavily both in 2017 and 2018. Many of those fires were remote but massive so the Lower Mainland and much of the province saw a prolonged period with alot of smoke.

[Typeing3]

I was thinking this morning how I saw 2016 being used as an analog for this Summer in some forecasts. As far as I remember, 2016 was above normal in terms of temps, but the rain came back early. I believe we had rain starting in August or September and then it proceeded into the Fall with a snowy December.

June 2016 had 46mm of rain
July 2016 had 30mm of rain
August 2016 had 14.5mm of rain
September 2016 had 69.5mm of rain
December 2016 had 46cm of snow in one Abbotsford station.

Fall 2016 had an insanely long wet stretch. Going off memory, out of the 61 days in October and November, something like 58 or 59 had rain -- and we only had one freeze, recorded in mid October if I recall correctly.

It paid off as we had at least some snow on the ground for essentially the entire December-March stretch, and the longest lasting cold snap since the winter of 1992-93.

[AbbyJr]

Fall 2016 had an insanely long wet stretch. Going off memory, out of the 61 days in October and November, something like 58 or 59 had rain -- and we only had one freeze, recorded in mid October if I recall correctly.

It paid off as we had at least some snow on the ground for essentially the entire December-March stretch, and the longest lasting cold snap since the winter of 1992-93.

No cold January in 2016/17. Throw it out.

[Typeing3]

No cold January in 2016/17. Throw it out.

Indeed. That's why 1992-93 was better IMO.

[stuffradio]

Hey,
Sorry the site was down. There was an issue on the host end today.

One lone model has a rain storm of just over 10mm before the end of the month. Score!

2024071512_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png

I saw today that Michaels has Fall/Thanksgiving and Halloween decor out already. Where's my Egg Grog in July!?

[Bonovox]

Stuff, it might be time to look at a better or more reliable host. Let me know how I can help.

[Roberts Creeker]

Hey,
Sorry the site was down. There was an issue on the host end today.

One lone model has a rain storm of just over 10mm before the end of the month. Score!

2024071512_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png


I saw today that Michaels has Fall/Thanksgiving and Halloween decor out already. Where's my Egg Grog in July!?

Wondered if it was just me, thanks for keeping the site going!

A lovely high of 21.7 in Sechelt today, just perfect!

[wetcoast91]

Smoke season is ramping up. Just too many fires being started

Could see smoke by mid week.

[AbbyJr]

Looks muggy for the next week or so...

nbm-CYXX-hourly_temp-1091600.png

nbm-CWMM-hourly_temp-1091600.png

nbm-CYVR-hourly_temp-1091600.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

The site acted up again just after midnight Mr. Stuffy Bear boss. it also booted my 2 posts from Sunday and skipper Gumps Yogi bear report sighting. they were gone when you got the site back up.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Hey,
Sorry the site was down. There was an issue on the host end today.

One lone model has a rain storm of just over 10mm before the end of the month. Score!

2024071512_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png


I saw today that Michaels has Fall/Thanksgiving and Halloween decor out already. Where's my Egg Grog in July!?

No grog for you Suffed boss way to early. We reached a cooler high of 26c in the central valley today.