September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2024 7:26 pm December 1990 also had a major snowfall event. YXX recorded 43.8cm on the 30th that month. Brief warm up afterwards before another period of arctic air settled in for about a week to start the new year. While the outflow winds were light during that event, it was very snowy. Looked like a colder version of February 2017. The peak snow depth at YXX was 44cm on January 9th, 1991. Overall, the 1990/91 winter was very exciting for weather enthusiasts. Would be awesome to see a repeat but again, winters around here nowadays don't seem to feature the back to back arctic blasts that used to be much more common. But having said that, the past few winters have been nice glimpse of the past. Maybe this upcoming winter will the one for the memory books? It's bound to happen again at some point. It sure would be nice but again I'm probably dreaming. But fingers crossed.


:wish: :wish: :wish:
Didn't warm up after that huge New Years Eve snowstorm so we had some pretty extreme snow depths in early January 1991 following the second snowstorm.

The initial arctic blast in mid-late Dec was fairly dry but very cold.
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (4).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (5).png



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20240920134333-96fe2f6c0638c3f2400df0c63f6937cefd0e252f.png
20240920134312-cdc41b85a8d9dc6b2097c8495321cffa800df1c9.png
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:typing: :type3:
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Coquitlam79 »

Bella Coola might see a flood event. AR4 atmospheric river. Similar to the 2010 floods up there? According to this model, we get a small piece if it on the South Coast. Might see some problems in the Pemberton area with this pattern too even if the main band of the AR dips a little South.
prec2-27.png
gfs-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-7179200.png
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

:cooldance:

Just issued.

DEC-JAN-FEB
off03_temp.gif
off03_prcp.gif
JAN-FEB-MAR
off04_temp.gif
off04_prcp.gif
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Lock it in!

:14clown: FS
cfs_t2m_anom_northamerica_202501_1.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Catnip wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 12:58 pm Lock it in!

:14clown: FS

cfs_t2m_anom_northamerica_202501_1.png
Is this the new A.I. model Catters?
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Typeing3 wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 6:44 am 00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (4).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (5).png




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20240920134333-96fe2f6c0638c3f2400df0c63f6937cefd0e252f.png
20240920134312-cdc41b85a8d9dc6b2097c8495321cffa800df1c9.png
Mid 20's mid next week not bad for late September enjoy it forum friends l bet that will be the end for this year. :wave:
We reached a high on Friday of 18c @ the pond in south Sardis.
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Coquitlam79 wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 12:30 pm Bella Coola might see a flood event. AR4 atmospheric river. Similar to the 2010 floods up there? According to this model, we get a small piece if it on the South Coast. Might see some problems in the Pemberton area with this pattern too even if the main band of the AR dips a little South.

prec2-27.png
gfs-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-7179200.png
Awesome to see master Cmen69 chime in with his always accurate analysis. :thumbup: :D
Last edited by HarrisonSasquatchWx on Sat Sep 21, 2024 8:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Glacier »

Below zero here in the Okanagan this morning. -0.3 and dropping
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Glacier wrote: Sat Sep 21, 2024 7:06 am Below zero here in the Okanagan this morning. -0.3 and dropping
Wow Glace excellent we hit 7c @ the pond in south Sardis this morning. :clap: :thumbup: :o
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

It dropped to 7C here this morning.
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

While it's highly unlikely to verify, some Euro ensemble members have a major windstorm for next Thursday night. Given how early we are in the season, such a storm would likely devastate the power grid. Again, it's an unlikely scenario but worth watching nevertheless. Welcome to fall. :wave:

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_gust-6941600.png

Euro ensemble member #13:
xx_model-en-196-0_modezrpd_2024092118_132_5618_149_m13.png
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

I don’t know how cold it was where I was camped in the Skagit Valley but it was pretty chilly. No frost, though.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Sat Sep 21, 2024 8:51 pm I don’t know how cold it was where I was camped in the Skagit Valley but it was pretty chilly. No frost, though.
Ballz warming season Rubes. :lol: we hit a high of 21c @ the pond in south Sardis on Saturday.
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Re: September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

AbbyJr wrote: Sat Sep 21, 2024 5:58 pm While it's highly unlikely to verify, some Euro ensemble members have a major windstorm for next Thursday night. Given how early we are in the season, such a storm would likely devastate the power grid. Again, it's an unlikely scenario but worth watching nevertheless. Welcome to fall. :wave:


ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_gust-6941600.png


Euro ensemble member #13:
xx_model-en-196-0_modezrpd_2024092118_132_5618_149_m13.png
Thanks staying on top of it Wpro 2.0, l look forward to your fall and winter analysis this season keep up the good work.
I enjoy Cmen69's synopsis as well but he's more on the conservative side l think more to go with climo which is fine it keeps us grounded when models are showing us mind blowing maps. :wtf:
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