December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[wetcoast91]

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It's insane to see a super +ENSO pattern now being advertised. Expecting early Jan to be a lost cause now.

[Catnip]

It's insane to see a super +ENSO pattern now being advertised. Expecting early Jan to be a lost cause now.

[AbbyJr]

Based on my limited knowledge, if this verifies, we will have a lot of cold air to tap into under an ideal 500mb pattern. I'm thinking that mid January is our best chance at seeing an ideal 500mb pattern develop.

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[Catnip]

[Typeing3]

Latest Euro AI Pumps up a Mega Ridge over us in the extended.

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It then starts to retrograde toward XMAS.

Maybe this is the beginning of the cold moving West as we get into January, as depicted in the Euro weeklies.

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Freezing fog for Christmas?

[Typeing3]

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Looks great for Iqaluit.

[Typeing3]

Based on my limited knowledge, if this verifies, we will have a lot of cold air to tap into under an ideal 500mb pattern. I'm thinking that mid January is our best chance at seeing an ideal 500mb pattern develop.


ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-5128000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z30_anom-5128000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z50_anom-5128000.png

Traditionally, our coldest arctic blasts tend to occur in the mid and late January timeframe so that would be ideal. Seems very far away given the El Nino pattern we will be in until late December at the earliest.

[AbbyJr]

It's insane to see a super +ENSO pattern now being advertised. Expecting early Jan to be a lost cause now.

I think it's being driven by the MJO and the fact that we don't have a well established La Niña at this time.

[Catnip]

Maybe... eventually.....

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[Hawk]

It's insane to see a super +ENSO pattern now being advertised. Expecting early Jan to be a lost cause now.

Tell em Nito!!
Sorry, it was time again

[Hawk]

Based on my limited knowledge, if this verifies, we will have a lot of cold air to tap into under an ideal 500mb pattern. I'm thinking that mid January is our best chance at seeing an ideal 500mb pattern develop.


ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-5128000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z30_anom-5128000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z50_anom-5128000.png

..that puts the mid-Jan carrots about 45 days behind the LR forecasts from 2-3 months ago

[Typeing3]

Maybe... eventually.....



aifs_z500_anom_noram_360.png

Looks good for the polar bears in Churchill.

[Catnip]

Looks good for the polar bears in Churchill.

Cold has to start somewhere before it comes West in January!

[PortKells]

..that puts the mid-Jan carrots about 45 days behind the LR forecasts from 2-3 months ago

That's why we don't believe forecasts months out anymore!

Right?

[AbbyJr]

Cold has to start somewhere before it comes West in January!

It's not at all unusual for the cold to initially drop east before shifting westward. This has happened with many of our arctic outbreaks.