December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[Hawk]

06GFS looks good..if you like rain and bommy ridging!!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

28.1 mm since midnight, 73.9 mm storm total.

Insanely heavy downpours earlier this morning. Wunderground station nearest me reports a peak rate of 11.9 mm/hr.

[PortKells]

...meantime in the Similkameeens...very wintry even with this AR event and sky high snow levels locally..

Today: A few flurries ending this morning then cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers. Clearing this afternoon. Risk of freezing rain early this morning. Snow level rising to 1300 metres this morning. Wind becoming southwest 20 km/h this morning. High plus 4 with temperature falling to zero this afternoon. Wind chill minus 3 this morning.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Low minus 6.
Thu, 19 Dec Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of flurries in the afternoon with risk of freezing rain. High minus 3. UV index 1 or low.
Night Cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low minus 3.

Enjoy it because it’s going to turn to a few crusty piles in short order.

[Hawk]

Enjoy it because it’s going to turn to a few crusty piles in short order.

..sounds like a #teamNito reply lol
Lets think positive and snowy!!

[wetcoast91]

06GFS looks good..if you like rain and bommy ridging!!

These runs aren't great if you like cold and snow but they aren't worse case scenario as we see many systems deliver high elevation snows.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Enjoy it because it’s going to turn to a few crusty piles in short order.

Welcome to the Team Pineapple fan club!

[AbbyJr]

Another clown range windstorm solution. Map valid Friday December 27, 2024 at 4:00PM:

xx_model-en-193-0_modez_2024121812_228_5618_149.png

[Michael1]

Another clown range windstorm solution. Map valid Friday December 27, 2024 at 4:00PM:


xx_model-en-193-0_modez_2024121812_228_5618_149.png

Aye, hows the one on the 24th looking, or did the models change their minds?

[Abby_wx]

Aye, hows the one on the 24th looking, or did the models change their minds?

The 12z ECMWF and GFS sent it well to our north. The CMC is the closest to a major windstorm, but it still goes over northern Vancouver Island.. so, blustery but nothing too serious. Too early to say for sure, of course.

[AbbyJr]

The 12z ECMWF and GFS sent it well to our north. The CMC is the closest to a major windstorm, but it still goes over northern Vancouver Island.. so, blustery but nothing too serious. Too early to say for sure, of course.

The models are known for sudden last minute flip flops, especially with wind events since a slight north or south shift can mean the difference between a gusty run of the mill solution and a damaging windstorm. Therefore, as you said, it's too soon to be able to predict the outcome.

That said, we haven't seen a top tier region wide windstorm since December 2018. So we are definitely long overdue.

[stuffradio]

The 18Z shows a possible white New Years Eve?

[Hawk]

The models are known for sudden last minute flip flops, especially with wind events since a slight north or south shift can mean the difference between a gusty run of the mill solution and a damaging windstorm. Therefore, as you said, it's too soon to be able to predict the outcome.

That said, we haven't seen a top tier region wide windstorm since December 2018. So we are definitely long overdue.

Major windstorms around here occur about as often as major snowfalls..so ya, once every few years is about right Jr

[Hawk]

The 18Z shows a possible white New Years Eve?

18z GFS says eat the Rains the entire run

[Radar]

18z GFS says eat the Rains the entire run

The warmer it is now, the colder it will be later in January.

[Typeing3]

These runs aren't great if you like cold and snow but they aren't worse case scenario as we see many systems deliver high elevation snows.

Strong zonal flow > SW flow garbage