January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Hawk]

EC has thrown snow/rain mix into the forecast this morning for areas like Hope/Squamish/ Abby, etc
Wow, another snow victory on back to back days!!

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (3).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (4).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (5).png

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[PortKells]

Was hoping for more eye candy last night and this morning. Jinxed it. Time to to the east.

[wetcoast91]

Was hoping for more eye candy last night and this morning. Jinxed it. Time to to the east.

First time looking at the models in 3 days. Still see energy in the mid Pacific at the end of the runs. That's all that matters. Forget about the CFS or weeklies until that energy retracts or dies within 10 days.

[PortKells]

First time looking at the models in 3 days. Still see energy in the mid Pacific at the end of the runs. That's all that matters. Forget about the CFS or weeklies until that energy retracts or dies within 10 days.

Agree and disagree. It has to get within 15 days before it gets within ten. I think it's still moving in the right direction. The end of the EPS has shut off the pacific energy. But skepticism is more than warranted at this range no matter how many eye poppiing fantasy runs get spit out. And the CFS has always been nothing more than entertainment. I'm blown away the southern folks still put stock into it.

[PortKells]

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7201600.png

[Hawk]

SNOWFALL WARNING for Hope BC
5cms this afternoon

https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index ... 0,-121.430

[Hawk]

Buuuuut..it looks like the Anal winds have kicked in already this am with temps shooting up to 4c, after EC says temps steady near 1c

[Catnip]

Agree and disagree. It has to get within 15 days before it gets within ten. I think it's still moving in the right direction. The end of the EPS has shut off the pacific energy. But skepticism is more than warranted at this range no matter how many eye poppiing fantasy runs get spit out. And the CFS has always been nothing more than entertainment. I'm blown away the southern folks still put stock into it.

FS

[Catnip]

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[Bc_trucker]

I definitely get a sense that something is gonna change....finally feels like there is some winter coming when you're outside. Even has that smell....dunno, maybe it's just wishful thinking?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I definitely get a sense that something is gonna change....finally feels like there is some winter coming when you're outside. Even has that smell....dunno, maybe it's just wishful thinking?

Well, it’s been cooler the past few days. But there are some hints in the models that it might be getting cooler yet in a couple weeks. Hard to say exactly this far out.

Just playing the odds of climo norms, chances favour us getting some snow at some point in the next couple months.

The weather weenies on the AF who are eager to cancel winter are engaging in the inverse of wishcasting. Call it doomcasting if you want. It’s just as unscientific as wishcasting. The weather doesn’t care about our feelings.

[PortKells]

The daily weeklies are still good, just about in the magical 384 hour range.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t850_anom-7331200.png

[PortKells]

Actually they are pretty good at 384:

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t850_anom-7244800.png

[wetcoast91]

SNOWFALL WARNING for Hope BC
5cms this afternoon

https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index ... 0,-121.430

It was a major bust there. +3 and rain with DP that spiked.
Freezing level is near 900m.

Different story in Yale with pockets of cool air still lodged in the Fraser Canyon.