January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Storm
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:59 pm GFS is a touch warmer and more realistic but it does show a skiff of snow with 925mb temps at -0.5C. It's worth watching though.
Also same as Nam
gfs_T850_nwus_fh84_trend.gif
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 8:03 pm Also same as Namgfs_T850_nwus_fh84_trend.gif
GFS looks a touch cooler late Fri into Sat morning. Any heavy showers would fall as wet snow overnight. Probably a mix bag of graupel, wet snow, hail and rain.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 8:04 pm GFS looks a touch cooler late Fri into Sat morning. Any heavy showers will fall as wet snow overnight. Probably a mix bag of graupel, wet snow, hail and rain.
Cold enough for snow down to sea level by Saturday 0100am, but precip is spotty at best.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Radar wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:56 pm That's where Hawk prays for the border forcefield to build.

btw, isn't it about now the models are supposed to collapse a bit and show 1-3cm totals?
Mr. Minion don't you know by now the collapse begins once Wpro has left the bldg.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Bonovox wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 4:56 pm What happens next week is whatever at this point. The Saturday into late Monday time frame looks to be potentially fun. Focus on that and let the other details sort themselves out.
I saw that corporal Goose posted a list and Burns Bog was on it, l thought it was a typo but decent for radiational cooling.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

Somw nice snow event.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh120-132.gif
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Bonovox wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 8:06 pm Cold enough for snow down to sea level by Saturday 0100am, but precip is spotty at best.
You need that trough to shift ever so slightly eastward. Most energy remains far offshore. You see a developing shortwave on Sunday but this gets pushed away by the outflow.

Moisture totals aren't the best.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

This is the frames with snow support.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh102-168.gif
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

This is much better than that 18z.
gfs_T850_nwus_fh180_trend.gif
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Michael1 »

Precip is a crap shoot for E Vsn isle. Usually, we do better with enhanced precip and outflow picking up moisture in the strait. A wait and see scenario.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

More Snow on Wednesday.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png
As well as on Gem
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png
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Last edited by Storm on Mon Jan 27, 2025 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Michael1 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 8:34 pm Precip is a crap shoot for E Vsn isle. Usually, we do better with enhanced precip and outflow picking up moisture in the strait. A wait and see scenario.
Ya that east island deformation band that just kinda sits over there i.e. December 2021 and December 2023? might be wrong on dates but l remember Nanaimo getting nuked.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

How much snow for Chilliwack?
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by John »

Storm I appreciate your input!!
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

GFS and GEM are quite similar with the progression.
gfs_T850_nwus_38.png
gem_T850_nwus_38.png
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