January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Storm]

3-6”? Doesn’t take much to impress you. Haha

20 cm is quite good, after the winter we had so far.

[Storm]

Models are models. The forecast actually looks pretty spot on for YVR. Upper obvs are cold but temps near sea level could rise to +3 or +4 when precip isn't falling. There could be rain showers in areas near sea level while Catnip and Hound see 15cm and models will generally do poorly in these setups. It's why you still need human input to correct this.

I expect EC to release a statement by tomorrow.

Upper level and thickness is all in place by Friday evening.

[Catnip]

No snow based on the 18Z GFS through Saturday afternoon.

Sunday into Monday morning is when it is showing some decent accumulations. Of course this is just the 18z. Expect many more changes in the next few days.

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[Catnip]

Pretty big crash in 850 temps on Friday evening.

Friday 4pm

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Friday 10pm

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[Typeing3]

-10°C 850mb by Friday evening. The weekend will be full of surprises.
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As mentioned, NAM is notoriously too aggressive with the push of cold air from the north. Expect it to correct over the next couple days. Once it's within 48 hours it's good.

[Storm]

As mentioned, NAM is notoriously too aggressive with the push of cold air from the north. Expect it to correct over the next couple days. Once it's within 48 hours it's good.

That's GFS

[Weather101]

Oh? Do tell.

Now, I'm probably wrong, but my theory is pretty simple at its root. Everyone knows we have seasonal lag when it comes to weather; hence, why the coldest temperatures are usually in January (Toronto, for example).

My theory is that longer, hotter summers and a warmer climate causes a delay in the onset of winter.. This seasonal lag also affects how long it takes the ocean temperature to cool down, delaying the feeling of being in the "middle of winter." So now February is the coldest month.

Again, I'm probably completely wrong, but it made sense in my brain.

[Weather101]

20 cm is quite good, after the winter we had so far.

20 cm is very good lol

[Typeing3]

GFS has stall L spinning bands of .
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Looks like a golden setup for snow while remaining fairly cold as well. Low is closer to the coast and not pushing too far offshore and phasing with that energy pushing northwards from Hawaii as has been seen on other runs.

[Typeing3]

That's GFS

Oh it is? Trying to keep up. Too many new posts.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Definitely some signs of air stagnation today. Was “nice” and gunky over Richmond this morning. Smokestack plumes were going up, then would hit the top of the inversion layer and spread out. Seems to have gotten pushed east a bit for the moment. There was a ugly brownish cloud over Surrey about 15 minutes ago. No photos because I was in freeway traffic.

[Catnip]

Monday would remain below freezing with snow on the ground. Tuesday am looks cold.

All based on this run of course.

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tuesday am.png

[Storm]

They and all within a couple of hours it seems with the push. RGEM and GFS are in lockstep.

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[Typeing3]

Monday would remain below freezing with snow on the ground. Tuesday am looks cold.

All based on this run of course.

monday pm.png
tuesday am.png

7f in east Coquitlam? Bring it on.

[Typeing3]

No snow based on the 18Z GFS through Saturday afternoon.

Sunday into Monday morning is when it is showing some decent accumulations. Of course this is just the 18z. Expect many more changes in the next few days.

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Arctic front still on track for Saturday night?