January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[PortKells]

Looks good
sn10_acc-imp.us_nw.png

Later than the others. Probably wrong. Still good in the end though.

[PortKells]

DF73E3A8-AB84-44D8-8029-6B69FA1288CB.png

[John]

DF73E3A8-AB84-44D8-8029-6B69FA1288CB.png

Reasonable I guess

[VanCitySouth]

Reasonable I guess

John has spoken, take it to the bank!

[PortKells]

Gem not convinced.

EE974369-7F77-4EE6-A2F3-1767B6417330.png

[WeatherPro]

After looking at the models, things have improved since my last report. Cooler air should start moving in a bit sooner, accumulations will start at higher elevations as early as Thursday evening/night. A prolonged period of cold is in store. Saturday evening/ into Sunday may be a substantial snowfall.

Thursday evening/night should see snow flurries/snow showers over night at higher elevations. 2 - 5cm could fall. It could drop near sea level but this is such a close call it will be a wait and see. Friday afternoon will see slight warming, so showers possible at sea level while any areas with elevation may see flurries and possible accumulations of 2cm. Saturday may see bands of flurries pass over the region. Depending on location one may see 2 - 4cm under heavier flurries. Saturday night should see steady snow for the area continuing into Sunday. This has the potential to change but currently it looks like 15cm is possible, especially over higher ground. As the arctic front moves in over night outflow winds will pick up. Monday may still see snow into the afternoon, or at least flurries as the front moves through and settles in. After this the cold air will settle in with lows around -10 possible. Daytime highs may remain below zero. We then enter a period of unknown. However it will be cold, and more snow chances are modeled.

As far as the lower mainland area. Snow accumulations will be higher in the west, and lower in the east, as in the fraser valley. Since snow will be dry, blowing snow will be an issue in the valley. East Vancouver island will see snow as well, with 5cm possible over the same period as stated above, and 10cm Saturday night. Flurries will persist through the week as cold outflow pushes across the straight, picking up moisture. So a few cm could fall each day depending on location. This is speculative.

All areas across the lower mainland and Vancouver island will see snow at some point.

Bonus: We are entering this period after weeks of overnight lows below freezing, so the ground and open water has been frozen already, so in a sense the ground is prime for sticking snow and further icing on open water. I've seen pics on X of shaded areas that did not lose frost cover all week. This will be helpful as the air near the surface is quite cold. Wet bulbing will also enter the equation as the secret sauce, as it is the factor that can't be predicted well. This will make the difference in snow levels pushing lower.

The start of this change will still be a minute by minute nowcast as it gets established. Saturday night is the first beg even to watch for. The next one is too far out but if models stay locked in on it, you guys may see an actual blizzard hit lower BC. Too far out to judge at this point.

Many surprises will definitely lurk in this pattern as it looks very favourable for snow chances. Reminds me a bit of 2007 era.

More updates as we get closer to Saturday.

[John]

After looking at the models, things have improved since my last report. Cooler air should start moving in a bit sooner, accumulations will start at higher elevations as early as Thursday evening/night. A prolonged period of cold is in store. Saturday evening/ into Sunday may be a substantial snowfall.

Thursday evening/night should see snow flurries/snow showers over night at higher elevations. 2 - 5cm could fall. It could drop near sea level but this is such a close call it will be a wait and see. Friday afternoon will see slight warming, so showers possible at sea level while any areas with elevation may see flurries and possible accumulations of 2cm. Saturday may see bands of flurries pass over the region. Depending on location one may see 2 - 4cm under heavier flurries. Saturday night should see steady snow for the area continuing into Sunday. This has the potential to change but currently it looks like 15cm is possible, especially over higher ground. As the arctic front moves in over night outflow winds will pick up. Monday may still see snow into the afternoon, or at least flurries as the front moves through and settles in. After this the cold air will settle in with lows around -10 possible. Daytime highs may remain below zero. We then enter a period of unknown. However it will be cold, and more snow chances are modeled.

As far as the lower mainland area. Snow accumulations will be higher in the west, and lower in the east, as in the fraser valley. Since snow will be dry, blowing snow will be an issue in the valley. East Vancouver island will see snow as well, with 5cm possible over the same period as stated above, and 10cm Saturday night. Flurries will persist through the week as cold outflow pushes across the straight, picking up moisture. So a few cm could fall each day depending on location. This is speculative.

All areas across the lower mainland and Vancouver island will see snow at some point.

Bonus: We are entering this period after weeks of overnight lows below freezing, so the ground and open water has been frozen already, so in a sense the ground is prime for sticking snow and further icing on open water. I've seen pics on X of shaded areas that did not lose frost cover all week. This will be helpful as the air near the surface is quite cold. Wet bulbing will also enter the equation as the secret sauce, as it is the factor that can't be predicted well. This will make the difference in snow levels pushing lower.

The start of this change will still be a minute by minute nowcast as it gets established. Saturday night is the first beg even to watch for. The next one is too far out but if models stay locked in on it, you guys may see an actual blizzard hit lower BC. Too far out to judge at this point.

Many surprises will definitely lurk in this pattern as it looks very favourable for snow chances. Reminds me a bit of 2007 era.

More updates as we get closer to Saturday.

Thanks for taking the time. Good night!

[AbbyJr]

Gem not convinced.

EE974369-7F77-4EE6-A2F3-1767B6417330.png

That's the only thing that's somewhat concerning to me. While the Euro is statistically the most reliable, I'd like to see some GEM support.

[AbbyJr]

After looking at the models, things have improved since my last report. Cooler air should start moving in a bit sooner, accumulations will start at higher elevations as early as Thursday evening/night. A prolonged period of cold is in store. Saturday evening/ into Sunday may be a substantial snowfall.

Thursday evening/night should see snow flurries/snow showers over night at higher elevations. 2 - 5cm could fall. It could drop near sea level but this is such a close call it will be a wait and see. Friday afternoon will see slight warming, so showers possible at sea level while any areas with elevation may see flurries and possible accumulations of 2cm. Saturday may see bands of flurries pass over the region. Depending on location one may see 2 - 4cm under heavier flurries. Saturday night should see steady snow for the area continuing into Sunday. This has the potential to change but currently it looks like 15cm is possible, especially over higher ground. As the arctic front moves in over night outflow winds will pick up. Monday may still see snow into the afternoon, or at least flurries as the front moves through and settles in. After this the cold air will settle in with lows around -10 possible. Daytime highs may remain below zero. We then enter a period of unknown. However it will be cold, and more snow chances are modeled.

As far as the lower mainland area. Snow accumulations will be higher in the west, and lower in the east, as in the fraser valley. Since snow will be dry, blowing snow will be an issue in the valley. East Vancouver island will see snow as well, with 5cm possible over the same period as stated above, and 10cm Saturday night. Flurries will persist through the week as cold outflow pushes across the straight, picking up moisture. So a few cm could fall each day depending on location. This is speculative.

All areas across the lower mainland and Vancouver island will see snow at some point.

Bonus: We are entering this period after weeks of overnight lows below freezing, so the ground and open water has been frozen already, so in a sense the ground is prime for sticking snow and further icing on open water. I've seen pics on X of shaded areas that did not lose frost cover all week. This will be helpful as the air near the surface is quite cold. Wet bulbing will also enter the equation as the secret sauce, as it is the factor that can't be predicted well. This will make the difference in snow levels pushing lower.

The start of this change will still be a minute by minute nowcast as it gets established. Saturday night is the first beg even to watch for. The next one is too far out but if models stay locked in on it, you guys may see an actual blizzard hit lower BC. Too far out to judge at this point.

Many surprises will definitely lurk in this pattern as it looks very favourable for snow chances. Reminds me a bit of 2007 era.

More updates as we get closer to Saturday.

Excellent analysis. Thanks so much.

[AbbyJr]

nbm-conus-vancouverski-total_snow_cm-8648800.png

[VanCitySouth]

Does anybody know the formula that goes into the blend? Like, which models and what weighting they're given?

[WeatherPro]

nbm-conus-vancouverski-total_snow_cm-8648800.png

Well, this map is certainly generous! I don't think it will verify, but it is possible by Tuesday there could be a combined snow amount from several days of accumulation. Really depends how well the storm delivers Sat/Sun/Mon and elevation.

Burnaby Mountain could see that!

[WeatherPro]

Has there been any ice reported on the Fraser River? Even just locally around the edges? I know there is not any floating downstream. I could not find anything online reporting it.

[AbbyJr]

Well, this map is certainly generous! I don't think it will verify, but it is possible by Tuesday there could be a combined snow amount from several days of accumulation. Really depends how well the storm delivers Sat/Sun/Mon

Burnaby Mountain could see that!

The past three Euro runs have been very generous too. No guarantees but given the Euro is one of the best models, it's noteworthy.

18Zecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8584000.png

12Zecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8584000.png

06Zecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8584000.png

[wetcoast91]

I do not see accumulating snow for the lowlands tomorrow. Probably 2cm up on Burnaby Mountains.