January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Jesus, our EC forecast bumps the daytime high from 3 to 6 on Saturdsy.wtf

If I understand correctly, Environment Canada relies on the GEM guidance so they are probably waiting to see if it jumps on board. So far it's milder and way less snowy than the Euro. I'm sure they consider the Euro too but I'm still somewhat skeptical without GEM support. Time will tell.

[Nordelian]

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_snow-8260000.pngecmwf-ensemble-CYVR-indiv_snow-8260000.png

Ensembles are not useful for snowfall amounts given the poor resolution.

But it will definitely snow!

[Monty]

I seem to be in the donut hole for ALL the maps.
I’m on the gulf islands and generally we score in these events but it’s looking mostly bone dry. Am I missing something?
Happy y’all are finally getting snow though
Can’t wait to see the outcomes

Gulf islands and southern Vancouver island want that low to slip south a bit more. Closer to Forks, WA. Currently the best dynamics are modeled to be over the lower mainland and further north on east Vancouver island.

[Nordelian]

10-20cm certainly seems within the realm of possibility.

Definitely for those not at sea level

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

10-20cm certainly seems within the realm of possibility.

Latest A.I. forecast mentions blowing snow Monday for the central valley.
Then next week highs of plus 3 one day. the forecast looks abit winter like.

[AbbyJr]

Ensembles are not useful for snowfall amounts given the poor resolution.

But it will definitely snow!

Still gives a general idea and it's fun to look at. But I agree, the low resolution means the ensembles shouldn't be taken at face value. The purpose of ensembles is to give us an idea of the variety of possible solutions. They aren't designed to be used for the details of a short range forecast.

[VanCitySouth]

Actually, I'd rather hear from someone else. You are not an honest broker.

Nito is right though. Saturday is actually NOT modeled to be the snow day.

Models show shower activity is disorganised and surface conditions are less favourable. It wouldn't be surprised if it is 5 or 6 degrees in daytime Saturday. It only gets interesting after sundown Saturday, and Sunday is when the arctic front makes it down here.

I'm not saying a stray heavy shower can't drag snow levels down to the surface on Saturday, because they definitely can, but it's not *likely*.

[Nordelian]

Nito is right though. Saturday is actually NOT modeled to be the snow day.

Models show shower activity is disorganised and surface conditions are less favourable. It wouldn't be surprised if it is 5 or 6 degrees in daytime Saturday. It only gets interesting after sundown Saturday, and Sunday is when the arctic front makes it down here.

I'm not saying a stray heavy shower can't drag snow levels down to the surface on Saturday, because they definitely can, but it's not *likely*.

This

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Nito is right though. Saturday is actually NOT modeled to be the snow day.

Models show shower activity is disorganised and surface conditions are less favourable. It wouldn't be surprised if it is 5 or 6 degrees in daytime Saturday. It only gets interesting after sundown Saturday, and Sunday is when the arctic front makes it down here.

I'm not saying a stray heavy shower can't drag snow levels down to the surface on Saturday, because they definitely can, but it's not *likely*.

Agree with your analysis l'm sure someone here will be tracking the Arctic anal front.

[Hound]

"Buy a coffee" is a good one..ive seen it on other sites

But like buttee said, e-transfer is prolly best so theres no company skimming our cash

Ya, many of the other services skim over $1 for transfers. Best to go with eTransfer since most banks offer that for free or a small fee.

[Hound]

They were pretty good from what I remembered. Even had updates at 9:30 p.m. if warranted.

Yup, they were good. Better than EC in most cases. I recall well.

[Hound]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
133 PM PST Thu Jan 30 2025

WAZ001-503-311230-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0002.250202T0600Z-250203T1800Z/
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-
Including the cities of Friday Harbor and Bellingham
133 PM PST Thu Jan 30 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 2 and
7 inches possible.

* WHERE...San Juan County and Western Whatcom County.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning.

Now this does not line up with EC's forecast which is for sure out of whack! The NWS is more credible.

[wetcoast91]

Nito is right though. Saturday is actually NOT modeled to be the snow day.

Models show shower activity is disorganised and surface conditions are less favourable. It wouldn't be surprised if it is 5 or 6 degrees in daytime Saturday. It only gets interesting after sundown Saturday, and Sunday is when the arctic front makes it down here.

I'm not saying a stray heavy shower can't drag snow levels down to the surface on Saturday, because they definitely can, but it's not *likely*.

Warming at the surface will aid shower development on Saturday. It's the type of day you will see sunshine, hail, graupel, snow, rain and maybe a thunderstorm.

[Hound]

Agree with your analysis l'm sure someone here will be tracking the Arctic anal front.

Ya, where is HugeCorn?

[Nordelian]

Now this does not line up with EC's forecast which is for sure out of whack! The NWS is more credible.

EC has different criteria for alerts than the NWS

Snowfall warnings are issued within 48 hours

Winter storm watches are within 72 hours but must have another hazard other than snow (eg. Wind, freezing rain) or be more than 25 cm of snow