January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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HarrisonSasquatchWx
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Well Grandpappy2233 Knuckles have to keep pace with the Lames they won last night and are 1 point up and in the last wildcard spot.
It's currently plus 2c @ the pond in south Sardis.
Last edited by HarrisonSasquatchWx on Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Storm wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:34 am I can't post for some reason.
That is a strange thing. I did have problems last night with posting. I haven't made any changes yet but I am looking into using Lightsail as I mentioned.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:38 am These mesoscale models have been incredibly consistent on essentially blowing up a thunderstorm over metro Vancouver that brings these crazy snow totals. Obviously a pretty volatile setup where a few kilometres could make a huge difference in totals.
500J Kg CAPE values across all meso models. Not really conducive to thunderstorm development.

It's lower level convergence (surface-925mb) driven by the E outflow and SW winds interacting over Metro Van. I sense you are going to see a meso cold low develop over the Strait of Georgia.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

wetcoast91 wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 9:00 am 500J Kg CAPE values across all meso models. Not really conducive to thunderstorm development.

It's lower level convergence (surface-925mb) driven by the E outflow and SW winds interacting over Metro Van. I sense you are going to see a meso cold low develop over the Strait of Georgia.
For the Victoria and Gulf island people, Monday and even into Monday night is looking snowy on the Canadian suite of models as that surface low lingers off of the Olympic peninsula.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Bc_trucker »

For now it's raining and 1° in Chilliwack. No wind at all and pressure is dropping.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Granddaddyp2233 »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:44 am Well Grandpappy2233 Knuckles have to keep pace with the Lames they won last night and are 1 point up and in the last wildcard spot.
It's currently plus 2c @ the pond in south Sardis.
Still don’t want to limp into the playoffs and loose round one
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Bc_trucker wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 9:07 am For now it's raining and 1° in Chilliwack. No wind at all and pressure is dropping.
Splat test comfirmed at 1:30a.m. this morning while driving home l was on Luckakuck at the time in Chilliwack.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Granddaddyp2233 wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 9:09 am Still don’t want to limp into the playoffs and loose round one
No but that fued between Miller and Petterson has to be dealt with Petey is just floating out there at times.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

wetcoast91 wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 9:00 am 500J Kg CAPE values across all meso models. Not really conducive to thunderstorm development.

It's lower level convergence (surface-925mb) driven by the E outflow and SW winds interacting over Metro Van. I sense you are going to see a meso cold low develop over the Strait of Georgia.
Do you have a good closeup map around the time that cell blows up over Vancouver. I don’t but it certainly has a convective look to it. RGEM shows it’s still above freezing at sea level at that time and the low level outflow lags behind that feature. But maybe the tidbits maps just aren’t picking up on those fine details.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

Global news has their in house product that Mark Madryga ran out through Monday morning. Not sure if it’s an actual model or if it’s a blend of models. It showed basically up to 20cm but a general 10-15cm over western sections mostly later Sunday.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Michael1 »

Monty wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 9:31 am Global news has their in house product that Mark Madryga ran out through Monday morning. Not sure if it’s an actual model or if it’s a blend of models. It showed basically up to 20cm but a general 10-15cm over western sections mostly later Sunday.
What are your thoughts on eastern Van Isle chances, Sunday night/ Monday?
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

:alert: :alert: :alert: :shock: :shock: :shock:

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8573200.png
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8573200.png
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_depth_chg_cm-8612800.png
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Monty wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:38 am These mesoscale models have been incredibly consistent on essentially blowing up a thunderstorm over metro Vancouver that brings these crazy snow totals. Obviously a pretty volatile setup where a few kilometres could make a huge difference in totals.
#ilovetroffs :thumbup:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

I think theres been about 100+ snow maps posted in the last week :crazy: :crazy: , with all of them showing different totals all over the place. Im sure one of them will hit
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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