January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Michael1]

I think theres been about 100+ snow maps posted in the last week , with all of them showing different totals all over the place. Im sure one of them will hit

We are at the mercy of what the exact moment brings lol

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Looks like a slight shift to the east on the 12Z Euro.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8540800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8627200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_48hr_cm-8627200.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8573200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8573200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_depth_chg_cm-8612800.png

Don't move Jr.Man perfect spot for snow for you and you can still have Tim bits with your too.

[Hawk]

EC says H7c for Abby today
I'll take a wild stab at it and say that YXX tops out at 4.8c today

[AbbyJr]

Long duration snowfall with a brief changeover to rain for some areas on Saturday. But it's all snow from thereon. I'm skeptical about lower elevations Saturday but Sunday should be cold enough for snow at all levels. Regardless, the Euro holds strong with some very heavy bands of snow.

Map valid from Saturday at 4:00AM to Monday at 7:00AM:

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-instant_ptype_6hr_mm-1738324800-1738411200-1738594800-40.gif

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Looks like a slight shift to the east on the 12Z Euro.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8540800.png
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8627200.png
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_48hr_cm-8627200.png

Nice the valley is back in the pickle ball game.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Long duration snowfall with a brief changeover to rain for some areas on Saturday. But it's all snow from thereon. I'm skeptical about lower elevations Saturday but Sunday should be cold enough for snow at all levels. Regardless, the Euro holds strong with some very heavy bands of snow.

Map valid from Saturday at 4:00AM to Monday at 7:00AM:
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-instant_ptype_6hr_mm-1738324800-1738411200-1738594800-40.gif

OMG look how it just repeatedly blows up.

[Storm]

Gem has more snow next weekend.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34 (1).png

[AbbyJr]

I'll post the maps shortly but the 12Z Euro has the cold snap lasting at least 13 days. February version of December 2008?

[Abby_wx]

The ECMWF is definitely favouring the valley, but the GFS is pretty stingy -- it delivers most of the goods to western Metro Vancouver areas. I do think western areas tend to do better with these convective events, as we've seen several times in recent years.

I'm currently thinking 10-15 cm for Mission/Abby, but who knows.

[Monty]

The ECMWF is definitely favouring the valley, but the GFS is pretty stingy -- it delivers most of the goods to western Metro Vancouver areas. I do think western areas tend to do better with these convective events, as we've seen several times in recent years.

I'm currently thinking 10-15 cm for Mission/Abby, but who knows.

GFS is usually the most aggressive with the dry outflow in the valley

[Monty]

What are your thoughts on eastern Van Isle chances, Sunday night/ Monday?

Looks good up your way Sunday night and Monday morning. Likely some bands of snow forming over the strait. Always variable amounts with these setups but I’d go up to 15cm right now.

[Michael1]

Looks good up your way Sunday night and Monday morning. Likely some bands of snow forming over the strait. Always variable amounts with these setups but I’d go up to 15cm right now.

I'd take 15 cm, no problem

[Abby_wx]

GFS is usually the most aggressive with the dry outflow in the valley

True, and unfortunately it's correct more often than not.

[AbbyJr]

The ECMWF is definitely favouring the valley, but the GFS is pretty stingy -- it delivers most of the goods to western Metro Vancouver areas. I do think western areas tend to do better with these convective events, as we've seen several times in recent years.

I'm currently thinking 10-15 cm for Mission/Abby, but who knows.

Normally the west would do better with convective setups, but this airmass is much more moist with less dry outflow interference. So perhaps the Fraser Valley will do better this time. Back on November 4th, 2023, the Euro did a lot better than other models with the convective nature of the moisture. While that was rain and not snow, I'd be curious to see how the Euro performs this time. Is it better with handling convective moisture than the other models? We could also go back to December 23rd, 2022 where the upper level cold and moisture was way overdone on the Canadian models, whereas the Euro got it right. In that case, the snowfall warning busted. It ended up being mostly light to moderate freezing rain. So while I'm not ready to bite on some of these insane snowfall totals shown on the Euro, I'm also not ready to discount its solution. I'm also curious to see how the Euro snow maps do since the recent upgrade. Apparently its surface temperature and wind predictions are substantially improved. Not sure if that would have an impact on its snow maps but time will tell. Regardless, it's likely going to snow. But the details are still unknown.