January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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stuffradio
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

AbbyJr wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 6:45 pm Updated snow forecast from The Weather Network:


Screenshot 2025-01-31 at 6.45.02 PM.png
Score!
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

wetcoast91 wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 6:47 pm What does the 10:1 show?

That looks like 5-10cm seems like a good bet with some areas seeing a trace-2cm.
nam-nest-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-8584000.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Cloverdale »

Kinda agree with Nito on this one unless something changes.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Not quite seeing the crash I expected to see tonight on the Island. Some runs were hinting at squall developing and ushering cold air behind it. Looks like it will be a gradual cooldown with dropping dewpoints.

Warmed up over the LM. So much so that it is raining on Cypress. Cooldown here will be gradual as well...
Last edited by wetcoast91 on Fri Jan 31, 2025 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

Michael1 wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 6:57 pm How did you do with the wind in November? That's the strongest wind we've had.
We had a bad one here. Was that the bomb cyclone. Power was out for a day and a half.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Michael1 »

Monty wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 7:48 pm We had a bad one here. Was that the bomb cyclone. Power was out for a day and a half.
That was the one lol.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

The 00Z GFS shifts the heaviest snow into the Fraser Valley similar to the Euro, although the Euro is still more widespread with the heavy snowfall.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8584000.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8584000.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_depth_chg_cm-8584000.png
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Last edited by AbbyJr on Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)

2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

I'm hoping that we do see a lot of snow over the next week (20-30 cm), but if we even get 5-10 cm where it looks like the ground is covered and I can make a snowman or snowballs with my children, that's good enough for me.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Can someone do a synopsis on timing etc. l've been busy today so out of the loop. Any idea when we can see the change over to snow? I'm choked about the Knuckles trade. :(
Last edited by HarrisonSasquatchWx on Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

AbbyJr wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:01 pm The 00Z GFS shifts the heaviest snow into the Fraser Valley similar to the Euro, although the Euro is still more widespread with the heavy snowfall.


gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8584000.png

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8584000.png

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_depth_chg_cm-8584000.png
As expected. We get closer and the models start scaling back on the precip. This is why it is best not to issue warnings or specify amounts more than 24 hrs in advance.

Heavier precip due to SW circulation leading to orographic lift in the Valley tomorrow. 15cm with most of it falling before Sunday AM. Looks like Nanaimo could see 15-30cm. 2-10cm in Metro Vancouver but some areas could get totally skunked.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

:thumbdown: Sorta shaping up to be the opposite of Jan 2024. That one started meh and trended super-snowy in the final 24 hours.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by tyweather »

wetcoast91 wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 7:47 pm Not quite seeing the crash I expected to see tonight on the Island. Some runs were hinting at squall developing and ushering cold air behind it. Looks like it will be a gradual cooldown with dropping dewpoints.

Warmed up over the LM. So much so that it is raining on Cypress. Cooldown here will be gradual as well...
Myself and my family got soaked up there. Bit of a bummer. I wanted to go yesterday instead. Lots of heavy concrete snow fell though.
Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

when does the snow start falling? And where first?
:think:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Michael1 »

tyweather wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:10 pm Myself and my family got soaked up there. Bit of a bummer. I wanted to go yesterday instead. Lots of heavy concrete snow fell though.
Wow did EC over estimate the strength of the maritime arctic front. It did drop from 7.8 to 2.5, but a ways away from the minus one, predicted
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Theres those S winds in Abby now..shot up to 6.4c from 3.3c previous max from an hour earlier
Dammm EC is so solid last cupla years already :shock:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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