February 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Monty]

This post is a great example of why you shouldn't warn the public too early.

Of course sometimes EC doesn’t warn the public until the snow is already causing chaos. I think the SWS was good enough for what we saw today.

[wetcoast91]

I'll post this for transparency, but I do believe these totals will prove to be underdone.

nam-nest-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8627200.png

I'm going with the mesoscale models here. The global models are showing too much moisture across a wide area when the nature of the showers will be more spotty. Another wrinkle is the onshore flow at the surface. -3C at 925mb would normally be good enough but that steady S-SW breeze means there will be more mixing at sea level.

[AbbyJr]

Here's the 18Z HRRR. Most of the snow falls Sunday morning through the evening.

hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8576800.png

[PortKells]

Just another useless weather map to raise our hopes only to be a BUST!!! Going outside to find
a caterpillar to see if it is extra fuzzy and check out the Farmers Almanac to get the real forecast.

I just bought a box of fortune cookies to get the real dirt on this situation, will report back soon! If that doesn't work, I have a good astrologist on speed dial.

[wetcoast91]

I just bought a box of fortune cookies to get the real dirt on this situation, will report back soon! If that doesn't work, I have a good astrologist on speed dial.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Just another useless weather map to raise our hopes only to be a BUST!!! Going outside to find
a caterpillar to see if it is extra fuzzy and check out the Farmers Almanac to get the real forecast.

Lol! Better results tossing pineapples at a dart board perhaps, so what happened to the Arctic fluff did it stall or go missing.

[Flakey]

With the Premature Anticipation we are all suffering from the one thing we are forgetting is even if the event turns out to be less than anticipated
we are going into a cold snap so it will stick around. ( Hopefully )

[Canada Goose]

Already 10 cm in Downtown PoCo!!!

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

With the Premature Anticipation we are all suffering from the one thing we are forgetting is even if the event turns out to be less than anticipated
we are going into a cold snap so it will stick around. ( Hopefully )

Perhaps more snow chances going forward as well the only negative is higher sun angles so a daytime fsnowall just melts away and l'm not staying up all night for snow well maybe.

[PortKells]

I'm going with the mesoscale models here. The global models are showing too much moisture across a wide area when the nature of the showers will be more spotty. Another wrinkle is the onshore flow at the surface. -3C at 925mb would normally be good enough but that steady S-SW breeze means there will be more mixing at sea level.

I hope its wrong but I do appreciate the analysis.
If we end up getting 5-10 cm going into a prolonged arctic blast I'll be mildly disappointed but still pretty happy. That's a fine event.

[Monty]

It’s basically been snowing all day here at 1C but we have lost some depth. Topped out at 6cm.

Obviously tomorrow looks better for something significant in the lower mainland. Today is basically going exactly as modelled. Though when we look at those crazy high total snow maps that show total accumulation over 72-84hrs, a lot of them were recording much of todays precip as accumulating snow.

[PortKells]

It’s basically been snowing all day here at 1C but we have lost some depth. Topped out at 6cm.

Obviously tomorrow looks better for something significant in the lower mainland. Today is basically going exactly as modelled. Though when we look at those crazy high total snow maps that show total accumulation over 72-84hrs, a lot of them were recording much of todays precip as accumulating snow.

The Euro:

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8692000 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8465200.png

[Monty]

Lol! Better results tossing pineapples at a dart board perhaps, so what happened to the Arctic fluff did it stall or go missing.

I have seen no models indicate the arctic front should be here by now. Sometime tomorrow has always been the plan. Even the crazy WRF didn’t show it arriving until early tomorrow morning and it usually rushes things a lot.

[Flakey]

Perhaps more snow chances going forward as well the only negative is higher sun angles so a daytime fsnowall just melts away and l'm not staying up all night for snow well maybe.

If projected temps are what some models are showing then I think sun angles will be less of an issue but yes more melting during the day is possible.
Speaking off sun it just popped out here.

[Monty]

The Euro:

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8692000 (1).pngecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8465200.png

The euro was seeing 7 - 19cm from Abbotsford east in the Fraser Valley falling between 4 am and 7 pm today.