February 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Roberts Creeker]

Well, we're down to chance of flurries with 2cm tonight, then back to chance of flurries for Sunday, and Snow Squalls on Monday. What the heck is a Snow Squall??? More than a flurry, less than snow?/

Currently 4.1c dp -3.4c in Sechelt on a fine sunny day with some passing clouds.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
South Sardinies: 0cm

Shirley, you’ve had a cm accumulate in those heavy showers today, haven’t you?

[Michael1]

Well, we're down to chance of flurries with 2cm tonight, then back to chance of flurries for Sunday, and Snow Squalls on Monday. What the heck is a Snow Squall??? More than a flurry, less than snow?/

Currently 4.1c dp -3.4c in Sechelt on a fine sunny day with some passing clouds.

Squalls are intense short term snowfalls, usually accompanied by gusty winds and can give upto 5cm each episode

[Flakey]

Sometimes I think this forum is like the movie Groundhog Day. Every year a few days before an event models show something epic, but when
climo does what it does most times people scream bust. Look forward to next February and waking up to I Got You Babe. Go EURO!!!!

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Shirley, you’ve had a cm accumulate in those heavy showers today, haven’t you?

Yes 2.5cm temps stayed at 1c during the event l posted a picture like 100 pages ago.

[Bonovox]

A couple of thoughts as I watch the Oilers get spanked by the Leafs right now. Ugh.

One, a lot of us post all snow maps. Not because we think they are guaranteed to verify, but because we enjoy looking at them and thinking about the what if. We get widespread regional snow so infrequently that the what if is nice to think about. The posts in between those pretty pictures are generally where the nuts and bolts are. Analysis, etc.

Two, let’s not start throwing around the word “bust,” before we even get to the best dynamics for lowland snow. Today was always going to be hit and miss. Monty and the Valley appear to be the winners. Overnight and into tomorrow, I think everyone gets snow. Amounts will vary widely, but it is going to snow and that is pretty cool.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Sometimes I think this forum is like the movie Groundhog Day. Every year a few days before an event models show something epic, but when
climo does what it does most times people scream bust. Look forward to next February and waking up to I Got You Babe. Go EURO!!!!

l think that tune is on my mixed cassette tape in my 79 Ford Granada.

[PortKells]

Posts like this are why I am not a fan of people posting snow maps without interpretation. Posters like this take it at face value.

There are plenty of models that had 15 cm or less for some areas. It wouldn't be a model bust to get 10-15 cm.

This "snow event" was never modelled to be an organized snowstorm and was always going to be a bunch of convective pulses on and off. The big amounts were always a result of a lucky cell of snow sitting stationery over metro Vancouver which is totally possibly but highly uncertain. Global models with poorer resolution will have a tendency to overblow amounts in those cases. This is why high resolution models that are convective allowing (i.e. HRRR, HRDPS, 3 km NAM) are the way to go.

This is all true but to be fair the short term models have been useful for about 36 hours or so. Before then, the global models are all we had. We’ve seen a lot of mesoscales since then.

As much as i want the euro to be right I’ve come to accept the evidence that it’s likely overdone and too widespread, and most here likely have too as evidence piles up.

I’m will add again that I think the euros confidence in an overperforming situation is still an interesting wrinkle to keep an eye on. That model is deadly when it locks in. We will find out very soon.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

A couple of thoughts as I watch the Oilers get spanked by the Leafs right now. Ugh.

One, a lot of us post all snow maps. Not because we think they are guaranteed to verify, but because we enjoy looking at them and thinking about the what if. We get widespread regional snow so infrequently that the what if is nice to think about. The posts in between those pretty pictures are generally where the nuts and bolts are. Analysis, etc.

Two, let’s not start throwing around the word “bust,” before we even get to the best dynamics for lowland snow. Today was always going to be hit and miss. Monty and the Valley appear to be the winners. Overnight and into tomorrow, I think everyone gets snow. Amounts will vary widely, but it is going to snow and that is pretty cool.

Who are you calling a nut my nuts and bolts are just fine thank-you, at my age it's the loose screws l"m worried about.

[Hawk]

Hopefully the clear breaks have primed the atmosphere for snow overnight. What are your thoughts Nito?

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Ok l don't understand this there's the low l thought this was sliding down the coast? this map shows it still away up north.

Screenshot_20250201-170736.png

[Catnip]

Shirley, you’ve had a cm accumulate in those heavy showers today, haven’t you?

[PortKells]

4 pmwith more on the way. Not bad.

581D1C57-6C06-4472-B864-A6ACCFD0E900.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Is there grief counseling available here.

[wetcoast91]

Hopefully the clear breaks have primed the atmosphere for snow overnight. What are your thoughts Nito?

It will at least allow temps at the surface to cool?