February 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[PortKells]

That aleutian low is back in the fray. We get brushed by a few weak systems but it now looks like it will be drier than normal the next few weeks with west coast ridging returning.

What a bummer.

March has to be wet.

Honestly, have nw flow/mountain snow patterns been rarer than arctic outbreaks in recent years? It’s starting to feel like it.

[AbbyJr]

That aleutian low is back in the fray. We get brushed by a few weak systems but it now looks like it will be drier than normal the next few weeks with west coast ridging returning.

What a bummer.

March has to be wet.

Big model collapse. Just a few days ago it looked like we might get a big overrunning event followed by an active AR pattern. Not anymore.

[wetcoast91]

Honestly, have nw flow/mountain snow patterns been rarer than arctic outbreaks in recent years? It’s starting to feel like it.

It's become extremely rare in the NDJ period. Now hard to come by in Feb.

We have not seen any sort of zonal flow this fall or winter as well.

[PortKells]

It's become extremely rare in the NDJ period. Now hard to come by in Feb.

We have not seen any sort of zonal flow this fall or winter as well.

I'm kind of surprised we have as much snowpack as we do. Feels like December and January was warm drizzle or dirty ridging. November maybe two days of mountain snow?

La NIna used to be at least reliable for this. Now it's a complete wildcard.

[AbbyJr]

I'm kind of surprised we have as much snowpack as we do. Feels like December and January was warm drizzle or dirty ridging. November maybe two days of mountain snow?

La NIna used to be at least reliable for this. Now it's a complete wildcard.

For sure. It seems that those cold NW flows are becoming more and more rare. Even active storm tracks with windstorms are more and more obsolete here. While I recognize that not everyone likes windstorms, my main point is that region wide storms are way less frequent now. Rather, there seems to be a lot more +PNA dominating our winter months even during La Niña. It really sucks but there's nothing we can do about it. It is what it is.

[Abby_wx]

High 3.9C after a low of -3.6C

13 cm snow depth remaining.

[Typeing3]

For sure. It seems that those cold NW flows are becoming more and more rare. Even active storm tracks with windstorms are more and more obsolete here. While I recognize that not everyone likes windstorms, my main point is that region wide storms are way less frequent now. Rather, there seems to be a lot more +PNA dominating our winter months even during La Niña. It really sucks but there's nothing we can do about it. It is what it is.

Winter 2021-22 featured it quite a bit from what I recall. That was probably the last time, obviously excluding the November extreme AR and the late December arctic blast.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Yes! It's currently 2.3c @ the pond in the central valley desert.

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[AbbyJr]

Winter 2021-22 featured it quite a bit from what I recall. That was probably the last time, obviously excluding the November extreme AR and the late December arctic blast.

The 2021/22 season was probably the closest to an old school winter we have seen here in a long time. Very dynamic with the AR's in November and then the snowy arctic blast late December into early January. A few differences aside, 1990/91 was probably the best analog in terms of a very active and wet November followed by a cold and snowy December that persisted into early January. So far, it's the best winter of the 2020's here.

[AbbyJr]

For those interested, here is a reanalysis for the beginning of the January 1954 arctic blast. Notice how the polar lobe dives down from the NE into SWBC/PNW with the picture perfect over the water trajectory. This is what I'm referring to when I say I want an old school arctic outbreak.

Several days into that arctic blast, an active jet stream slammed into the arctic airmass with a low pressure system stalling offshore for a week. Significant snowfall was recorded between the 20th and the 26th that month with 65.4cm at YVR and around 120cm in New West and Abby.

If only we could somehow get a repeat of that event. But unfortunately, we haven't seen a topic tier snowy pattern like that since the 50's.

modera5_19540115_1500_animation.gif

[PortKells]

The 2021/22 season was probably the closest to an old school winter we have seen here in a long time. Very dynamic with the AR's in November and then the snowy arctic blast late December into early January. A few differences aside, 1990/91 was probably the best analog in terms of a very active and wet November followed by a cold and snowy December that persisted into early January. So far, it's the best winter of the 2020's here.

2022/2023 was a baller winter too. Late November/early December snowfall with a week of cold, followed by that absolutely potent arctic blast on the 17th of December which dropped variable amounts but here it was about 50 cm in two days. Then you had another minor snowfall at the end of January followed by late feb blast and a significant snowfall for most.

However Dec 2021 was a top tier event and stands alone as a singular event. The timing of it was perfect.

[Canada Goose]

That aleutian low is back in the fray. We get brushed by a few weak systems but it now looks like it will be drier than normal the next few weeks with west coast ridging returning.

GFS is quite juicy next week (after Sunday 16). Even the ECMWF shows some rain.
Please just tell me it's not gonna rain at 1,500 m on the 16/17th...

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

GFS is quite juicy next week (after Sunday 16). Even the ECMWF shows some rain.
Please just tell me it's not gonna rain at 1,500 m on the 16/17th...

Sounds like another pineapple event headed our way unfortunately. +12c rain.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

It's another east island invasion.

Screenshot_20250210-032256.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Honestly, have nw flow/mountain snow patterns been rarer than arctic outbreaks in recent years? It’s starting to feel like it.

Good point l recall NW flows would happen at some point every winter growing up. It seems as rare as that elusive Knucks cup were waiting for.