September 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image - 2025-09-10.png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image - 2025-09-10T.png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image - 2025-09-10T1.png

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[Canada Goose]

2016!

For YVR, October and November 2016 were very wet but September was slightly wetter than normal, not dry.

Dry Sept. and (very) wet October AND November at YVR:
2024
2012
1999
1995
1984
1975
1955

[Catnip]

For YVR, October and November 2016 were very wet but September was slightly wetter than normal, not dry.

Dry Sept. and (very) wet October AND November at YVR:
2024
2012
1999
1995
1984
1975
1955

Some nice winter weather in Nov, Dec 1955 and Jan, Feb 1956.

December 84/Jan 85 also decent.

Haven't checked them all though.

[Typeing3]

For YVR, October and November 2016 were very wet but September was slightly wetter than normal, not dry.

Dry Sept. and (very) wet October AND November at YVR:
2024
2012
1999
1995
1984
1975
1955

Other than 2024-25 and 1999-00, all the other winters on that list featured at least one major snow event.

84-85 was incidentally one of the last few winters where people skated on Lost Lagoon.

[stuffradio]

Single digits in the latest epsgram

2025091100_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png

[Roberts Creeker]

Any thoughts on Sunday's wind and rain? I'm wondering about power outages with the 20 - 50 km/h gusts.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Any thoughts on Sunday's wind and rain? I'm wondering about power outages with the 20 - 50 km/h gusts.

Tongue in cheek Ms. Gusty creeks that could definitely blow the hair around on your farm critters. it's currently 18c @ the pond in south Sardis and the new home of Stuffly and fam.

[stuffradio]

We are 9 days away from the equinox

[Hawk]

We are 9 days away from the equinox

We are potentially only ~70-80 days away from our first flakes
Hows ENSO looking this winter?

Edit: Not looking good right now, but things can change

[Catnip]

We are potentially only ~70-80 days away from our first flakes
Hows ENSO looking this winter?

Edit: Not looking good right now, but things can change

Neutral I believe, at least to start with.

[AbbyJr]

We are potentially only ~70-80 days away from our first flakes
Hows ENSO looking this winter?

Edit: Not looking good right now, but things can change

Neutral or possibly a weak La Niña. The QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) has also moved into the negative (easterly phase) and assuming it stays that way, the polar vortex will likely be weak resulting in a higher chance of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming.) These warming events usually send the arctic air somewhere into the lower latitudes. Even without a SSW event, a weaker polar vortex still favours arctic air reaching the lower latitudes. While there are never any guarantees, I'd expect an increased chance of an arctic air outbreak here this winter with a weak polar vortex and or SSW event. It does seem like SSW's have been favouring the west for arctic air as of recent. But any winter forecast is an educated guess at best.

[Coquitlam79]

Barely any rain here and it looks like the eastward progression of the showers has stopped at the western edge of metro Vancouver. Ugh, another dud. Not surprised but I'm thinking we won't get any meaningful rainfall until October. The models have cried wolf too many times now.

After the ridge rebuilds some this week, some models are showing a pattern shift next weekend and beyond to cooler, wetter weather. I'll believe it when I see it and not a second before. Lol

On another note Weather.com has a high of 29c in Coquitlam on Tuesday. Seems overdone, 25-27 is more realistic. In any event not bad for mid-September.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Barely any rain here and it looks like the eastward progression of the showers has stopped at the western edge of metro Vancouver. Ugh, another dud. Not surprised but I'm thinking we won't get any meaningful rainfall until October. The models have cried wolf too many times now.

After the ridge rebuilds some this week, some models are showing a pattern shift next weekend and beyond to cooler, wetter weather. I'll believe it when I see it and not a second before. Lol

On another note Weather.com has a high of 29c in Coquitlam on Tuesday. Seems overdone, 25-27 is more realistic. In any event not bad for mid-September.

What showers Mr. Cmen, definitely won't reach the central valley desert.

[Catnip]

Barely any rain here and it looks like the eastward progression of the showers has stopped at the western edge of metro Vancouver. Ugh, another dud. Not surprised but I'm thinking we won't get any meaningful rainfall until October. The models have cried wolf too many times now.

After the ridge rebuilds some this week, some models are showing a pattern shift next weekend and beyond to cooler, wetter weather. I'll believe it when I see it and not a second before. Lol

On another note Weather.com has a high of 29c in Coquitlam on Tuesday. Seems overdone, 25-27 is more realistic. In any event not bad for mid-September.

Ya, rained/drizzled for about 1/2 hr maybe?

.3 mm imby.

[Coquitlam79]

Ya, rained/drizzled for about 1/2 hr maybe?

.3 mm imby.

It's interesting because the GFS model gets dumped on a lot.But they were the driest model so therefore the most accurate for this recent period.

I think due to recent trends, whichever model is the driest should be the model that is used for a forecast, At least during this seasonal transition where the models are clearly having a lot of trouble with the strength of systems and how much rain accumulates.