November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

AbbyJr wrote: Tue Nov 11, 2025 7:59 pm December 2008! :wish:
December 2021 was just fine and I will be happy with another. 12 cm of freshly-fallen snow on the ground on Christmas morning, flurries on and off during the day.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Apparently there’s a very nice auroral display going on above the overcast tonight.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (4).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (5).png



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20251112045429-d4b66fd68d740b663220db86212802d4e652a9d0.png
20251112045412-6618be1d942e2a1a40c7e7e7874083beac04705a.png
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:typing: :type3:
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Looks like the ridging is gone nito … what happened?
:think:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

EC is going for rain and H8 L2 from Thursday on for Abby. Thats good. I saw Golden Ears yesterday and it was "bald" all the way to the top. Not to be mistaken with the Bald Eagle which is White Capped after the age of 3 or4 or so :think: :think:
The mountain was pretty much bare to the peaks. Thats at ~5700+ feet buttees. Its Mid November almost..not mid September :thumbdown:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

:alert:
06z GFS is out and its looking kinda ridgy. Nito was right!! :wave:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by tyweather »

The North Pacific sea surface temperature is warm and it is getting warmer every year. Not good for winter snow.
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Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

The latest Euro is trending towards an early season late November Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Front loaded winter? Let's go! :clap: :wave: :flakey:

ecmwf10hpazonal.png
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

tyweather wrote: Wed Nov 12, 2025 11:47 am The North Pacific sea surface temperature is warm and it is getting warmer every year. Not good for winter snow.
especially ugly from ~1980 to current :cryhard: :cryhard:
that would explain the mostly non existent "severe" winters that were more common back in the 60's, 70's :think:
I mean i dunno..kinda seems like they used to be some years anyways
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

AbbyJr wrote: Wed Nov 12, 2025 12:09 pm The latest Euro is trending towards an early season late November Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Front loaded winter? Let's go! :clap: :wave: :flakey:


ecmwf10hpazonal.png
#lateNovember :think:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Michael1 »

tyweather wrote: Wed Nov 12, 2025 11:47 am The North Pacific sea surface temperature is warm and it is getting warmer every year. Not good for winter snow.
Although the average temp is increasing, it has to be broken down into regions for a clearer idea. It's not as bad with the N.E pacific:
ssta.daily.current.png
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Michael1 wrote: Wed Nov 12, 2025 12:40 pm Although the average temp is increasing, it has to be broken down into regions for a clearer idea. It's not as bad with the N.E pacific:

ssta.daily.current.png
Agree 💯 M1 l heard somewhere that a warm Pacific ocean doesn't effect winter over all. :dunno:
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

AbbyJr wrote: Wed Nov 12, 2025 12:09 pm The latest Euro is trending towards an early season late November Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Front loaded winter? Let's go! :clap: :wave: :flakey:


ecmwf10hpazonal.png
:thumbup: l posted an article on that yesterday Jr. Man better now then late January for once.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

You will see the city of Chilliwack hang Christmas decorations along Luckakuk way and parts of Vedder road soon Mr. Stuffaroni man. Downtown Chilliwack is done up very nice as well. Harrison Hot Springs has the decorations up @ the lake now. :clap: November 22nd is lighting ceremony along with fireworks. :o
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

HarrisonSasquatchWx wrote: Wed Nov 12, 2025 12:56 pm Agree 💯 M1 l heard somewhere that a warm Pacific ocean doesn't effect winter over all. :dunno:
Some debate on that. The most obvious effect is probably fewer cold onshore flow events.

This will be my third winter in Mission and I'm still waiting for my elevation to really shine during a marginal setup. I had one elevation dependent event last winter, but it was only about 6 cm.
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2025/26
Low min: -5.0C (Feb 20th)
Low max: 2.8C (Feb 19th)
Snowfall: 3 cm
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