November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Michael1]

Some debate on that. The most obvious effect is probably fewer cold onshore flow events.

This will be my third winter in Mission and I'm still waiting for my elevation to really shine during a marginal setup. I had one elevation dependent event last winter, but it was only about 6 cm.

There is so much going on in the Pacific right now; the ENSO looks to be heading for at least a very cool neutral; the north Pacific is governed by the PDO, which when identified, had a much longer oscillation period than it does now. however, for this winter, the PDO is in a strong cold phase. How will that manifest with the warming climate? No idea, but in the past its been good support for colder winters. I don't know how it affects precipitation though...

PDO.png

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (45).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (46).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (47).png

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[John]

Looks like we might get some winter in about 10 days

[John]

Monty and storm should return as soon as it gets colder

[Glacier]

Only 33 again here in California.

Lots of wild donkeys running around.no idea what they eat. Cacrus?

20251112_151332.jpg

20251112_151059.jpg

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[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Monty and storm should return as soon as it gets colder

It's nice when we have a full house John that's when the fights begin

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Only 33 again here in California.

Lots of wild donkeys running around.no idea what they eat. Cacrus?

20251112_151332.jpg

20251112_151059.jpg

20251112_162026.jpg

Glace What the heck are you doing there.

[Hawk]

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (45).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (46).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (47).png




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20251113075515-095f08ca3216811e729d9914512f36f041fb9df0.png
20251113075505-81b6e95c35c921bc8dabe0366da4b00215ab82cc.png

2nd half of November looks solid for the Mtns

[Hawk]

Only 33 again here in California.

Lots of wild donkeys running around.no idea what they eat. Cacrus?

20251112_151332.jpg

20251112_151059.jpg

20251112_162026.jpg

u made it to California?? Whoa...

[AbbyJr]

There is so much going on in the Pacific right now; the ENSO looks to be heading for at least a very cool neutral; the north Pacific is governed by the PDO, which when identified, had a much longer oscillation period than it does now. however, for this winter, the PDO is in a strong cold phase. How will that manifest with the warming climate? No idea, but in the past its been good support for colder winters. I don't know how it affects precipitation though...

I'm also interested to see how this potential early season SSW affects the first half of our winter. Looks like it'll be a Canadian warming rather than a Siberian or North Atlantic event though. I'd be more confident if it were a Siberian warming as those ones as of recent have been really successful in sending arctic air into the Pacific Northwest. If I'm not mistaken, the most recent Canadian SSW event occurred in November 2016 but it was a minor event without a full wind reversal. Anyways, we all know how December 2016 worked out for us. Granted, the QBO that winter was positive whereas it's now in the negative phase. Either way, it'll be interesting to see if we get a full wind reversal this time and how the upper level pattern responds. My guess is we won't feel the effects of it until at least mid or late December but time will tell. Hopefully we'll score some tasty holiday snowy treats to enjoy while decorating the Christmas tree or opening gifts on Christmas morning. If not, then maybe we'll finally get a cold January.

10hpazonaecmwf.png

[John]

I'm also interested to see how this potential early season SSW affects the first half of our winter. Looks like it'll be a Canadian warming rather than a Siberian or North Atlantic event though. I'd be more confident if it were a Siberian warming as those ones as of recent have been really successful in sending arctic air into the Pacific Northwest. If I'm not mistaken, the most recent Canadian SSW event occurred in November 2016 but it was a minor event without a full wind reversal. Anyways, we all know how December 2016 worked out for us. Granted, the QBO that winter was in the positive phase whereas it's now in the negative phase. Either way, it'll be interesting to see if we get a full wind reversal this time and how the upper level pattern responds. My guess is we won't feel the effects of it until at least mid or late month but time will tell. While I know I'm biased, I still think we'll get some cold and snow in December given the weak polar vortex and cold ENSO state.

Keep hoping junior!

[Catnip]

#extrapolate
#circus
#only__daysaway

ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_85.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Rain has stopped and I see blue sky to the west, so it looks like 20.6 mm for the day.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Rain has stopped and I see blue sky to the west, so it looks like 20.6 mm for the day.

Lame Rubes by November standards.

[Catnip]

37mm here according to the city gauge across the street.