November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Hawk]

For the mid range, the models are very struggling, again
But as always, we will soon find out whats gonna happen. Stay tuned buttees

[Typeing3]

I have been listening to this guys videos from time to time. He is a meteorologist. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nj1jc5mxmi8

He talks about how December is similar to 1983 and Joe Bastardi was also pointing it out.

Big arctic blast for most of the continent in the 10 days leading up to Christmas 1983. It was a dry cold snap for us here, but cold enough that people were skating on Lost Lagoon.


Snowstorm was forecast for the 25th/26th, but busted.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Big arctic blast for most of the continent in the 10 days leading up to Christmas 1983. It was a dry cold snap for us here, but cold enough that people were skating on Lost Lagoon.


Snowstorm was forecast for the 25th/26th, but busted.

Yup we talked about this bust event in the past Tman l remember being so stoked about the possibility of snow for Christmas day. The gifts and turkey dinner were still awesome.

[Hawk]

Big arctic blast for most of the continent in the 10 days leading up to Christmas 1983. It was a dry cold snap for us here, but cold enough that people were skating on Lost Lagoon.


Snowstorm was forecast for the 25th/26th, but busted.

Whoa...so long ago, and weirdly, i think i remember this (i have a very bad memory, even for snow events )
Living in East M Ridge. I recall the system that busted - stalled/dried up as it smashed into the coast. Back then, forecast busts were way more common. I can see rain instead of snow, but snowstorm to tumbleweeds? Even back then, the forecasters underestimated the power of the bonedry arctic air i guess, i dunno. I recall even waiting for the precip to arrive all evening/night, and all it did was get overcast i think

Then iirc, slow moderation the next cupla days and showery i think..maybe brief zr to start next evening

[Hawk]

this..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 12012&fh=6

check out Hour 348

[John]

18z look cold

#believe

[tyweather]

18z is looking interesting.

[AbbyJr]

Classic arctic fart for next weekend on the 12Z Euro today.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4460800.png

Screenshot 2025-11-20 at 3.16.11 PM.png

Screenshot 2025-11-20 at 3.10.13 PM.png

[Catnip]

Certainly some potential as we move forward into Dec.

Still lots to figure out in model land.

[Catnip]

sfct-imp.us_nw.png

[AbbyJr]

Certainly some potential as we move forward into Dec.

Still lots to figure out in model land.

For sure. I'd be surprised if we didn't see at least a chilly modified arctic blast either the end of this month or in the first half of December. The Euro continues to show the MJO moving into phase 7 early next month, which is a cold phase here. The only thing that I can think of that could disrupt that would be the potential SSW event upcoming. If I understand correctly, SSW's can sometimes mute the MJO effects. The last thing we need is for a favourable MJO phase to be wasted by a SSW that ends up sending the cold back east while we get stuck with a ridge over us.

Screenshot 2025-11-20 at 3.40.25 PM.png

[Catnip]

18Z GFS ensembles are picking up a more pronounced potential 2nd cool/cold shot now.

We shall see what happens with that. Operational certainly wasn't out on it's own.

ens_image.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

sfct-imp.us_nw.png

And here we go again. good grief.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

18z look cold

#believe

Yup

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

18z is looking interesting.

Moisture shuts off as cold air arrives, low too far off the coast page 1 Neetzz hand book paragraph 3 after AR and plus 12c