November 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Mt. Seymour getting some today.

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[AbbyJr]

I mis the old positive junior, keep believing son!

I’m still confident we will see an arctic blast at some point this winter.

[Catnip]

Just remember… our real winter month is still a couple months away….

[Hawk]

lol..no consensus on whats going to happen past day 6 or 7. Just model noise as usual..they are struggling with the pattten shift

[tyweather]

At least the end of the run looks great

[Bonovox]

12z EPS. It wouldn't take much to make this decent. Ripe for retrogression. Dec 5th and beyond has some potential, in my opinion.

[tyweather]

Cypress is finally getting snow! It was bare this morning.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Cypress is finally getting snow! It was bare this morning.

Nice Ty my man the models are just snowing us along recently.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I’m still confident we will see an arctic blast at some point this winter.

Come back tomorrow for more clown fun Jr. Man.

[Catnip]

12z EPS. It wouldn't take much to make this decent. Ripe for retrogression. Dec 5th and beyond has some potential, in my opinion.

Yup... Middish December is the time frame to watch.... for now....

[Typeing3]

Yup... Middish December is the time frame to watch.... for now....

Originally thought we might be waiting until late Dec for anything significant in terms of cold and snow, but the long range EPS certainly does look promising with the potential retrogression of the west coast/GOA ridge by mid month.

[AbbyJr]

Originally thought we might be waiting until late Dec for anything significant in terms of cold and snow, but the long range EPS certainly does look promising with the potential retrogression of the west coast/GOA ridge by mid month.

Mid December onwards will be the timeframe to start watching. The MJO is projected to go into phase 7 by early December and move into phase 8 mid month. Of course there is no guarantees the modelled solutions for the MJO will verify but here are the current forecasts:

Screenshot 2025-11-24 at 8.57.36 PM.png

Screenshot 2025-11-24 at 8.42.14 PM.png

And here is the potential 500mb pattern for both MJO phase 7 and 8 in December under negative ENSO conditions. Note: Take these composites with a big grain of salt as they are low to medium reliability. But I do find it quite interesting that the current modelled pattern for early December looks somewhat similar to MJO phase 7 with a negative ENSO, which is in line with the modelled phase of the MJO at that particular timeframe.

ninadecnegensophase7.png

ninadecnegensophase8.png

As you can see, phase 7 features a partially amplified GOA block that extends into BC with a trough in the east. That would be a cold solution for the east and potentially chilly but much milder out west. However, by phase 8 the trough tries to extend into the west with a stronger and more offshore GOA block. The result would be a much a colder outcome for the west and possibly into the PNW region depending on the exact upper level pattern.

[Catnip]

WOW, that’s a lot of Cold air in Western Canada in range GFS.

IMG_9927.png

IMG_9926.png

[Typeing3]

WOW, that’s a lot of Cold air in Western Canada in range GFS.

IMG_9927.pngIMG_9926.png

Great Lakes Heat Dome!

artworks-000067302238-2odr5q-t500x500.jpg

[Hawk]

Mid December onwards will be the timeframe to start watching. The MJO is projected to go into phase 7 by early December and move into phase 8 mid month. Of course there is no guarantees the modelled solutions for the MJO will verify but here are the current forecasts:


Screenshot 2025-11-24 at 8.57.36 PM.png

Screenshot 2025-11-24 at 8.42.14 PM.png


And here is the potential 500mb pattern for both MJO phase 7 and 8 in December under negative ENSO conditions. Note: Take these composites with a big grain of salt as they are low to medium reliability. But I do find it quite interesting that the current modelled pattern for early December looks somewhat similar to MJO phase 7 with a negative ENSO, which is in line with the modelled phase of the MJO at that particular timeframe.


ninadecnegensophase7.png

ninadecnegensophase8.png


As you can see, phase 7 features a partially amplified GOA block that extends into BC with a trough in the east. That would be a cold solution for the east and potentially chilly but much milder out west. However, by phase 8 the trough tries to extend into the west with a stronger and more offshore GOA block. The result would be a much a colder outcome for the west and possibly into the PNW region depending on the exact upper level pattern.

Wow very intense Jr..good analysis for us beginners. Now, give us a re-analysis and summary around Jan 15 to see what really happened