December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

Wow. Didn't expect that.

Merry Christmas!

MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[AbbyJr]

Wide array of possibilities in the longe range indicated by significant model spread. Expect lots of model flip flopping.

euroepo12z.png

europna12z.png

gfsepo18z.png

gfspna18z.png

[Hound]

Interesting that EC added up to 4cm of snow for higher elevations around Vancouver and Abbotsford for tomorrow, boxing day.

[Storm]

Interesting that EC added up to 4cm of snow for higher elevations around Vancouver and Abbotsford for tomorrow, boxing day.

Actually 5 cm

Screenshot_20191225-172557_WeatherCAN.jpg

[Canada Goose]

For tomorrow:

Thursday at 4am:

BC: Cloudy morning for southern interior ranges as the stratus under the high pressure remain in place. The frontal wave will spread snow to the NW ranges. Winds along the coast will rise to 90 km/h from the south. Freezing levels begin near 500 metres Thursday morning but will rise to 900 metres by Thursday afternoon. Precipitation amounts vary but there's the possibility of seeing 20 to 30 mm QPE. Inland, precipitation amounts are near 10 mm QPE with freezing levels steady at 500 metres.

2500-metre winds up to 90 km/h will develop over portions of the North Rockies Thursday morning. Winds at 2000 metre will be closer to 50 to 70 km/h and as high as 30 km/h for 1500 metres.

Thursday at 4pm:

BC: The frontal wave slides down the coast Thursday afternoon and brings the snow and wind with it. A touch of warm air ahead of the cold front will raise freezing levels over the Sea-to-Sky and South Coast ranges from 500 to 800 metres by Friday morning. 5 to 10 cm of snow is expected.

A lot of uncertainty in early January.

mgram_Vancouver.png

2019122500_054@007_E1_yvr_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png

[Monty]

Would have been better if the precip held off till later overnight. If the precip is steady enough that won’t matter but it looks like the front moves thru quickly

[Typeing3]

Would have been better if the precip held off till later overnight. If the precip is steady enough that won’t matter but it looks like the front moves thru quickly

Heaviest precip looks to move thru around 10pm per 18z 3km NAM. 00z running now so we'll see if the timing changes.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 42435?s=20

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Merry Christmas, everyone! I hope everybody had an enjoyable day. When l saw Jr's posting about his gift from his parents l thought it was Weather pro's latest book the day the blizzard never struck. It's currently a chilly -0.2c in south Sardis on this Christmas night. EC has 2cm in the forecast for the central valley tomorrow night.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

9th earthquake just hit an hour ago

Not to worry W101 just the Hawks signing of Marshawn Lynch, the beast is back.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 42435?s=20

O.k. can someone explain what it all means thanks? Is there an SSW taking place now or what. The earlier the better but l've been hearing this for almost a month now.

[Typeing3]

O.k. can someone explain what it all means thanks? Is there an SSW taking place now or what. The earlier the better but l've been hearing this for almost a month now.

For significant cold in the mid latitudes we want to see a weakening of the polar vortex, not an intensification. Thru the next two or so weeks, the PV will be very strong hence the extreme cold forecast for Alaska and other polar areas....on the flipside, not much cold for areas in the midlatitudes.

[Roberts Creeker]

Interesting that EC added up to 4cm of snow for higher elevations around Vancouver and Abbotsford for tomorrow, boxing day.

Lucky! Just rain forecast forSechelt.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

For significant cold in the mid latitudes we want to see a weakening of the polar vortex, not an intensification. Thru the next two or so weeks, the PV will be very strong hence the extreme cold forecast for Alaska and other polar areas....on the flipside, not much cold for areas in the midlatitudes.

Oh o.k. so strong means it stays put then? weakening its moving south. Thats where its confusing l see the word weakening and l think its going away. Thanks T3, I may need a T4 with the lack of model consistancy.

[AbbyJr]

For significant cold in the mid latitudes we want to see a weakening of the polar vortex, not an intensification. Thru the next two or so weeks, the PV will be very strong hence the extreme cold forecast for Alaska and other polar areas....on the flipside, not much cold for areas in the midlatitudes.

So any model solution that suggests significant cold coming down south within the next 2 weeks is likely wrong?