January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Roberts Creeker]

Wow that's a lot of trees, have to applaud the resourceful and opportunistic "Coasters" I'm sure lots of have chain saws at the ready...and some wood stoves!!


I heard upper Gibsons had more snow than some other areas. Glad to hear you were able to get out for some fresh air and see the results (cause ) of the storm and power outage!

Yes, upper Gibsons is a common winner in the snow, Langdale even moreso, if it's going to snow on the coast Langdale usually gets buried in it. I like to check out the BCFerries webcam to see what's happening down there. https://www.bcferries.com/current_condi ... bcams.html

[Storm]

It's closing in. Flurries st my place.

[Roberts Creeker]

Picture doesnt really show it, but there's a nice low ceiling hanging over vancouver....

Looking east from the Duke Point-Horseshoe Bay ferry

Have a safe drive home, sounds like you'll beat the weather.

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 31584?s=19

[Hawk]

Hi WP,

Thank you for your synopsis and summary of the past and future weather for this week. I agree with you on so many points i can see why we would be great buttees! Esp talking weather
I really look forward to your contributions here. They provide us snowlovers with a realistic and optimistic forecast.

I agree with you on the wind aspect and would like to suggest the following:
In times when a Nino or Nino state dominates, i feel that the S winds blow right through easily. Transition events occur quickly, with little to no snow. In times of colder set ups, like this week, the S winds struggle to dominate and warm us up, mainly due to our topography and the "pattern" that allows cold air to seep out through the valleys and inlets continuously, or repeatedly. I call it pattern lock, and there has been many examples of this while i have been on this forum.

The biggest variable is the winds..i agree. Last time they barely put a dent into this cold airmass. The warmth was a sliver around 200-400m. And whatever did warm up was brief and mostly coastal. Forecasts have been showing a warm up and much warmer temps..which have been way off.

I like all the members on here that provide excellent weather data, insight and analysis. Hopefully won't forget someone but Monty AbbyWX, Jr, Nito, Goose, Glacier, Storm, Catnip, and prolly missed a few..sorry.

But WP, you take the prize! If you nail the snowcast this time all i can say is wowwwwwwww

We will find out by tomorrow sometime

[Michael1]

Precip seems to be inconsistent on the island- might just get rain here, but the winds are picking up, any old storm in a port, as they say! As usual, Mt. Washington is getting just thrashed :
https://www.mountwashington.ca/live-cam.html

[Slytyguy]

We live in a very dynamic climate here and weather is so variable but looking at the past over running events leaves me to believe that by morning even the valley will be in full ZR and -3 to -6 range. Really hope I am wrong but unless that system slides south, I think this is likely outcome.

[Hawk]

The consensus on here from those that have mentioned it seems to be a lack of snow amounts this event and a quick transition? Me included. But WP has laid down the hammer.
Tofino is only at 2c
Abby is -4c
Willoughby is -1c

Snow has begun West and within 1-2 hours South and East

[tyweather]

Outside on the patio with the kids skating. On last time.

[Storm]

Wild!
https://twitter.com/davewhitty/status/1 ... 91968?s=19

[VanCitySouth]

Leading edge of that precip is really early...

[Cloverdale]

Outside on the patio with the kids skating. On last time.

Fear not. It will snow again one day.

[wetcoast91]

Next week = damp and moist. Sunday looks dry with warm temps but the rest of the week is perpetual +8C drizzle with light rain. Big thaw for the local Mountains and we could see avalanche concerns. Storm track takes aim at Northern Vancouver Island and Central Coast.

00z GFS has lots of energy in the tropics. Models arent showing it yet but I suspect we will see a 2-3 day AR event take shape in the next 10 days.

MILD AND DAMP.

[Hawk]

But WP said cooler temps. What are the chances your statements will be close? Do you believe that after about the 4 or 5 day mark its accurate or not?

[AbbyJr]

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-0666400.png